Internet schminternet

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Ironically, Newsweek’s online archive is the best place to find this article from 1995 decrying the hype around the internet (which was emailed to me by a business associate).  Almost 15 years ago, Clifford Stoll claimed it was ludicrous to expect the online world to provide news, information, and social interaction.  “Baloney,” Stoll says.  “Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth [is] no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.”

Stoll’s arguments make sense if you remember the internet in 1995.  Back then, the online experience started with a screeching modem, and downloading a file took minutes rather than seconds.  And sending money was dicey to say the least, which made e-commerce a non-starter:

We’re promised instant catalog shopping–just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts.  Stores will become obsolete.  So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month?  Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet–which there isn’t–the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.

Today, there are probably major malls that don’t do as much business during the Christmas season as the internet does in the blink of an eye, thanks to secure online payment systems.  It turns out, people don’t need salespeople when they have hordes of consumer sites and online reviews to get unvarnished information from.

But the shift has been more than technological.  There is a cultural acceptance of the online world that didn’t exist 15 years ago.  Further, the online world has self-organized in a way that Stoll and others did not anticipate.  For instance, Stoll bemoaned the Usenet bulletin boards, claiming that because everyone had a voice, everyone would get drowned out.  A similar criticism could have been made ten years later as blogs became more prevalent.  As society has become more comfortable online, they have found the sources of information they trust the most.  Anyone can have a blog, but not everyone will have a well-respected or popular blog.

Stoll was right about one very important thing, and that is the role of the internet in personal relationships.  “What’s missing from this electronic wonderland? Human contact.” Stoll concluded.  “Discount the fawning techno-burble about virtual communities. Computers and networks isolate us from one another.”  In 1995, internet enthusiasts envisioned a way to connect with people from around the world – “Play Mortal Kombat with a friend from Vietnam,” was the promise Jim Carrey made in The Cable Guy – and maybe Stoll was right to dismiss that idea.  As the internet evolved, though, it became a tool to maintain connections that would have otherwise frayed.  Facebook can make every day a twenty-first century high school reunion.

It’s hard to predict how technology will change in 15 years.  It’s hard to predict how people will change, too.

Everyone quit breathing!

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The Obama administration is expected to name carbon dioxide a pollutant today – which makes it easier to regulate without Congressional approval.  According to second grade science class, carbon dioxide is one of the essential ingredients for life – plants need it for photosynthesis.   Still, too much of anything is bad, which begs the question of whether dihydrogen monoxide – a substance which can now be found on over three quarters of the Earth’s surface – is next:

“Free is too expensive”

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

That’s yesterday’s line from Les Hinton, who oversees NewsCorp’s American operations such as Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, to newspapers.  They cannot, he explained to the World Newspaper Congress, simply give away the content they create.  “News costs,” said Hinton.  “Quality costs.”

His boss, Rupert Murdoch, has already promised that his online properties will being charging for content, and Hinton encourages others to do the same.  Some outlets have been able to do that – Roll Call, National Journal, and the Wall Street Journal charge readers for online access, and ESPN’s website has certain sections which require a subscription fee.  Google is obliging, making it easier for subscription sites to appear in news searches without giving away all of their content.

But as any armchair economist can tell you, as the price of a product increases the demand goes down.  So media entities which charge for their online content will naturally have fewer readers.  Hinton claims that “such a business model has to mean one of two things: Either there is no demand for the content or there are substitute suppliers of that content sufficient to drive the price almost to zero.”

And indeed, there are substitute suppliers of that content.  When the New York Post begins charging me to read about the New York Yankees, I will simply get my Yankees news from the Daily News – or River Avenue Blues, or MLB Trade Rumors.

Does that mean selling news is a bad business model?  Not necessarily.  By charging for news content, media outlets may wind up with an audience that is smaller in numbers but higher in quality.  For instance, a widely read blogger may find it worth his or her while to subscribe to news sites to stay informed and have the best blog content possible.

If the media outlet hits revenue goals which allow it to produce good content, and the blogger attracts enough readership to sell advertising, everyone hits the metrics they care about – and everybody wins.

The Year in Google

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Google has released their 2009 Zeitgeist report – a summary of popular search trends along various topics.  Lists like this are usually predictable – the most-searched-for baseball team was the Yankees; the alphabet soup of AIG, GM, and TARP led bailout-related searches.

But search results can also give a good concept of popular thinking on key news topics.  For instance, the top term used in healthcare-related searches is “Obama.”  That seems to indicate that, for better or worse, people are closely identifying the President with the health care reform issue.  Also interesting is that the Heritage Foundation was the #5 search term in this category – which could mean that Americans are open to hearing alternatives to what has been circulating on Capitol Hill.

Google also looks at localized search topics for several major cities.  Movie theaters and school websites dominated the results, especially colleges.  In DC, the top term was “fcps blackboard” – the portal for the Fairfax County public school system.  This actually says a lot about the Washington, DC workforce and commuting patterns.  (I knew I had company on my daily commutes into and out of Your Nation’s Capital from Merrifield, but had no idea it was enough to alter search results; Metro clearly needs more trains.)

That education websites are so popular also notes another trend.  Around the Thanksgiving table this year, my soon-to-be brother and sister in law commented that they hadn’t seen their daughter’s recent report card, despite the marking period having ended.  They explained that they just check her grades online.

Pollsters can call voters, ask questions, track answers, and get a pretty good idea of what folks are thinking.  Still, there’s an element of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in that method – that the very act of measuring could affect the responses to poll questions.  Internet searches are somewhat anonymous.

As the old saying goes, you are who you are when no one is watching.

Crashing in and cashing in

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Not since Sen. John McCain appeared in a movie with topless women have two party crashers caused so much controversy in Washington, DC as Tareq and Michaele Salahi.  And in addition to exposing what may be questionable security at the White House, they may have also highlighted one of the problems with big, mainstream media.

November 30:  Multiple media outlets report that the Salahis are asking for a six-figure payout for an exclusive interview.

December 1: The Today Show – one of my favorite programs for hard-hitting journalism – runs an exclusive interview of the Salahis.

Playing two sides against Afghanistan

~ Jim Eltringham ~ 1 Comment

It’s one thing for a politician to draw criticism for a policy from his opponents, but the reaction to President Obama’s Afghani-plan speech last night from the left is potentially more problematic.

Obama’s speech was unsurprising – not only had his plans for troop escalation been the worst kept secret in Washington for weeks, he promised to do as much during the campaign last year.  Still, pundits like Michael Moore – normally a water boy for all issue blue – have issued strongly worded rebukes against such a strategy.

Moore’s warning, in an open letter, that Obama would “destroy the hopes and dreams so many millions have placed in” him suggests that he wasn’t paying attention to the substance of Obama’s campaign rhetoric.  As a likeable candidate, Obama made it easy for folks like Moore to ignore policy details and revel in the fact that their newest candidate wasn’t a wonkish robot (like Al Gore in 2000) or a New England blue blood (like John Kerry).

Unfortunately for the President, that raises expectations to the level of his follower’s wildest dreams – not a good thing in an environment where success or failure often comes down to the size of the yardstick.

Thanksgiving Recap: Turkey, Tiger, and TMZ

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The Thanksgiving weekend accident that sent Tiger Woods to the hospital proves that what’s true of nature is true of modern media and media consumers: both abhor a vaccum.

The bizarre circumstances surrounding the situation suggest a deeper explanation than Woods heading out to his local Best Buy to snag some Black Friday door buster deals.  Traditional media outlets have reported  poked fun and spread rumors.  But TMZ is pointing to eyewitness reports that contradict the facts given by ESPN on the ubiquitous crawl across the bottom of the screen during the Thanksgiving weekend college football games.  TMZ also reports that law enforcement agencies are looking more deeply into the matter.

Honestly, the truth of Tiger Woods and his wild ride are of little import to world affairs.  Everyone – or at least, almost everyone – is happy that his injuries weren’t serious, and he can go back to being the amazing golf ball whacker guy that he was on Wednesday.

For TMZ, though, the Tiger tale gives them another notch on their belt to go along with their scoop on the death of Michael Jackson.  What used to be a disdained celebrity gossip site has now played a key role in two major stories over the past six months.  Woods even had to respond to the reports – predictably calling them false, but offering no new details.

TMZ succeeds because they fill a need for information that other media are unable to provide – working largely by interviewing witnesses, digging through public records, and other classic hallmarks of the un-sexy world of old fashioned shoe-leather journalism.  Contrast that with the largely opinion-driven chatter that permeates 24 hour news channels, and the secret of TMZ’s success becomes a little more clear.

New Moon, Old fashioned?

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Conservatives complaining about the left-leaning bias of movies and TV shows is nothing new – and with each shrill criticism comes another round of shut-up-and-just-enjoy-the-movie eye rolling.  It turns out the whining comes from both sides of the aisle.

Campus Progress is none too fond of the #1 movie of last weekend; apparently the vampire flick New Moon is rife with disturbing hidden messages. For instance, a conversation about whether werewolves are born as werewolves or whether they choose to become werewolves is decried in light of the lack of gay relationships in the movie.  On top of this is what the author calls:

“[A] disturbingly explicit anti-premarital sex message which ends the movie… despite knowing the Mormon background of Meyer, I couldn’t believe that the director and screenwriter would have let the end credits roll without undertaking some sort of criticism of the ideas espoused by the main characters in the final scene.”

It sounds like these Mormon vampires are undead-set on pushing a social agenda.  Clearly, this movie about werewolves fighting vampires must be answered; and the best way to fight speech is, as always, with speech.  Maybe the folks who agree with Campus Progress can find some way to get a movie made which deals with alternative lifestyles, or one that puts promiscuous teenagers in a more positive light.

Basketball with a public option

~ Jim Eltringham ~ 1 Comment

What’s the problem with having a public option as part of a health care reform package?  This video does a good job of exposing the fallacy that a government-run insurance program simply expands competition on an even field – or, in this case, court.

enator Dodd

Letters:

· Ted Keyes – Financial professional, active member of numerous greater Hartford business organizations and Dodd supporter ( has spoken with Dodd over the years on litigation reform issues, specifically Class Action).

· Ryan Kennedy – Former personal aide to Dodd.  Ryan began a career in financial services about 5 years ago after leaving Dodd’s staff.  He is a supporter, contributor and son of Dodd’s close friend, Brendan Kennedy.

· Mark Austin – Private Capital Group

Web postings:

· http://philosophyofexperience.blogspot.com/2009/11/dodd-turns-bank-reform-into-gift-to.html

· http://donpesci.blogspot.com/2009/11/dodd-dancing-with-scheme-liability.html

Sen. Bayh

Letters:

· Martin Wright – CPA and the CFO for Laibe Corp.

· State Representative Matt Bell (R-Avilla) – He is forwarding a previous securities letter along with a new cover letter.

· Deirdre Tiernan – CPA for the Indiana Rural Electrical Cooperatives.

· Michael Brenner – CPA for the Indiana Rural Electrical Cooperatives.

Phone call:

· Chris Belch – Partner in the bankruptcy firm Lynch and Belch. He spoke to Ellen Chube, Senator Bayh’s Banking LA.  According to Ellen the Senator is reviewing the language and she could not speak specifically to section 984. She did say the Senator feels the House version provides too much financial regulation.

Web/Email:

· Indiana Manufacturers Assoc. – Included language on the Bill in their morning email blast to 8,000 members on 11/17.

Sen. Schumer

Letters/email:

· Mark Gjonaj – Treasurer, Albanian American Chamber of Commerce, to Marty Brennan with a copy of a letter he had previously sent in on scheme liability.

· Ralph Coti – Owner of Coti and Sugrue, a well-known law firm in New York City. He’s dealt with Schumer in the past.

· George Darden – Mayor, Village of Spring Valley

Phone call:

· Armen Meyer – High level staffer for NYS Banking Superintendent Richard Neiman.  Called Jona Crain, Schumer’s LA for the banking committee, to express the superintendent’s views about the single regulator proposal and the negative impact it has on New York: destabilization of the state charter, removing expertise of a state partner, and giving banks no reason to stay in New York. He said JC wasn’t forthcoming with position of Schumer, but was very receptive to the opposition points despite public comments made by Schumer.