Category: Politics and Grassroots

The Left’s tea party

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The left in American politics loves to claim the somewhat disorganized, unpolished Tea Party movement amounts to a hostile takeover of the GOP by fringe lunatics.  But to better understand the unrest that gave rise to the Tea Partiers on the right, one might look at what TechPresident called “The Obama Disconnect.”

When the Obama campaign of 2008 became the Obama government of 2009, it meant moving away from theoretical campaign promises and into the process of regulating and legislating.  Meanwhile, the famed campaign apparatus – including the 13 million strong database and the online infrastructure – became “Organizing for America,” or OFA

Now, activists are frustrated with OFA.  TechPresident chronicled the plight of Marta Evry, an Obama campaign worker who remained active after the election.  Evry is disappointed in the Administration’s efforts to pass a health care bill despite losses on key provisions for liberal ideology – points such as a public option and expanding abortion services.

It’s much the same energy that conservative activists have right now.  And just as Tea Party-inspired excitement does not necessarily translate to blind support for Republicans, left wing disillusionment with Democrat incumbents will soften their prospects in 2010.

Retirement planning

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The double-barreled retirements of Senators Dodd and Dorgan – combined with the revelations that Democratic frontrunnerswill be giving up bids to claim and maintain (respectively) in Michigan and Colorado – launched speculation of what possibilities await the Republican party in 2010.

In the Senate, the Democrats’ prospects have actually brightened.  Dodd’s seat would have been a near lock for a Republican pickup.  In both Connecticut and North Dakota, new Democratic candidates can run against the status quo without being tainted by the failures of the previous or current Congress.

And nationally, while Dodd and Dorgan have generated some Republican excitement, these types of anouncements are better done early in a cycle than late.  Like ripping off a band-aid in one fell swoop, early retirements allow adequate time to allow the media story of a flailing party to run its course and to recruit and fund replacements on the ballot.

There are going to be more calls for Senate Democrats to retire, though, as several incumbents have polled weakly.  But of all the flagging incumbents, the one who might be most likely could be Majority Leader Harry Reid – even if there is no obvious replacement for him on the ticket.

In many respects, Reid is in the same position as Tom Daschle was in 2004 – a vulnerable national party leader whose prominence caused some within his own state to feel he had lost touch with them.  And like Daschle, Reid will fight not only Republicans within his own state, but GOP donors and volunteers from across the country who sense blood in the water and are hungry for a win that would officially end the “Republican Party is Dying” media story (for a few years, at least).

That kind of energy fueling a get out the vote operation could cause a 5% bounce, seriously hurting not only Reid, but other Democrats… including gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, the Majority Leader’s son.

Mass hysteria

~ Jim Eltringham ~ 2 Comments

In an early surprise of 2010, Republican State Senator Scott Brown is picking up steam in the special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left vacant by Ted Kennedy’s death last year.  Of course, he’d need a lot of steam, since even Rasmussen’s polls put him nine points behind Attorney General Martha Coakley – who still polls at 50%.  A deeper reading of the poll shows some reasons for even further optimism, though:of those who “definitely” plan to vote, Brown’s disadvantage sinks to 2%.  In a special election in January in New England, leading among independents and the most passionate voters is enough to be within striking distance.

Massachusetts Republican-leaning bloggers from conservative thinker Dan Flynn to scum-of-the-Earth, fake-bloody-sock-wearing Curt Schilling have expressed excitement about Brown’s run.  And given the political environment in Massachusetts, this is an against-the-spread race.  If Brown finishes within 5-10 points on election day, he’ll start the media narrative that, even in the bluest of blue states, support for the Obama agenda is wavering.  And it will help excite the Bay State Republican Activists who would be crucial for later contests – including a Governor’s race later this year.

Polling for messages

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

As a follow-up to yesterday’s post about polling, check out the poll being conducted by Organizing for America, the de facto campaign wing of the White House.  With so many plates spinning at once, it’s a smart move by the DNC.   There’s plenty of energy on the right as 2010 kicks off – but not all of it is being ably mobilized by the Republican party.  A poll like this allows the Democrats to not only identify which issues will spur on their base, but also to communicate to activists individually instead of painting them all with the same brush.

Two campaign tools you don’t have to pay for

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Google Wave is still a mystery to many folks – I have to confess, I haven’t spend a considerable amount of time pondering its potential yet.  But Wes Donehue of TechRepublican has, and he shares some ways to use this new tool for a cause or campaign:

Also at TechRepublican today: Jeff Vreeland has a good idea about using Facebook as a email match program.  Amassing email addresses has become a basic function of any organized effort, but an email address alone is worth little.  Using that information as a springboard for connecting on other platforms can help draw potential volunteers and donors into the fold.

Rasmussen: high disapproval among Democrats

~ Jim Eltringham ~ 1 Comment

Democrats who are tired of flogging Fox News are ripping Rasmussen Reports, the polling agency which produces survey results which tend to favor Republicans.  Viewed in conjunction with the fervor with which those on the left attack Fox News, it echoes the shrill media conspiracy theory accustations espoused by the most ardent conservatives of the 1970s and 1980s.  It also reflects a lack of understanding of some facets of public opinion.

For instance, Eric Boehlert of Media Matters accuses Rasmussen of “under-polling” President Obama because the Rasmussen presidential approval ratings tend to be lower than in other polls.  Leaving aside that other polls have largely caught up to that trend, Boehlert ignores the fact that Rasmussen polls samples of likely voters – rather than all adults.  This makes Rasmussen a less reliable source for taking the temperature of the general public but makes for a much more accurate forecast of the only poll that matters – the one held on election day.

Some Democrat operatives have problems that go deeper – citing the wording of questions:

In August, for example, Rasmussen asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement “It’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.”

“Why stop there, Rasmussen? Why not add a parenthetical phrase about how tax cuts regrow hair, whiten teeth, and ensure that your favorite team will win the Super Bowl this year?” responded Daily Kos blogger Steve Singiser, who frequently writes about polls.

Questions like the ones above are fairly common in polling and – with a more sophisticated reading – provide valuable insight for partisans of either stripe.  The question doesn’t measure opinions on tax breaks, it measures the reasons for people’s opinions on tax breaks.  If 80% of the likely voters polled say “yes” to that question, then a Democratic communications operative might recognize his candidate’s need to correlate tax hikes to public, versus personal, benefits.  A Republican operative might try to do the opposite.

A Rasmussen poll which might be even more interesting, though, is whether Democratic “inside baseball” complaints about news organizations and pollsters they perceive to be against them will help win them any support – especially among likely voters.

The Decade of YouTube

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The last week of 2009 is a time to reflect not only on the last year, but the last decade as well.  The internet may not have been invented in the 2000s, but it certainly became more integral to our daily lives.  Among the internet innovations that have transformed not only the web but how we communicate, YouTube stands out.

The social web revolution of the last half of the decade made the internet more accessible.  Instead of acting as a one-way flow of information, everyday people could have their own corner of the web and interact with their friends digitally with ease.  But Mashable makes the case that, above Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and other services, YouTube is the top social media innovation of the decade because it not only offers users a way to display content they have created, but also offers other users a way to easily share content that they like.

But the 2000s became the Decade of YouTube not because of technology, but because of cultural political impact.  In 2006, YouTube had a profound impact on politics, famously changing the course of the Virginia U.S. Senate race (and, likely, the course of the 2008 Presidential nomination). In 2008, Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the Presidency in a YouTube video.

But more important than that, activists have used YouTube to make their case on a number of issues through short videos that have been passed from one person to another.  Activists have taken down ACORN with a YouTube video.  Both sides of the health care debate have made their cases with short online videos.

In fact, the current political climate almost necessitates thinking in terms of short, catchy videos, and not just to defend against a “Macaca Moment.”  If you and your side can’t make your case with a funny or poignant two-to-four-minute video, you simply cannot win.  Sound bites were important for media coverage in 1999, but now campaigns must actively create sound bites – for the media, for their volunteers, for their donors, and for the voters they hope to win over.

Some might say this dumbs down the political process.  But focusing a message into a short video – or into a 140-character Twitter update – doesn’t need to leave out salient points.  It does require a fundamental understanding of an issue.  As Mark Twain said, “With a hundred words to do it with, the literary artisan could catch that airy thought and tie it down and reduce it to a cabbage, but the artist does it with twenty, and the result is a flower.”  Or more succinctly, brevity is the soul of wit.

There have been many ways the Internet has changed politics in the last decade, but YouTube’s impact goes beyond the internet.

The last week of 2009 is a time to reflect not only on the last year, but the last decade as well.  The internet may not have been invented in the 2000s, but it certainly became more integral to our daily lives.  Among the internet innovations that have transformed not only the web but how we communicate, YouTube stands out.

The social web revolution of the last half of the decade made the internet more accessible.  Instead of acting as a one-way flow of information, everyday people could have their own corner of the web and interact with their friends digitally with ease.  But Mashable makes the case that, above Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and other services, YouTube is the top social media innovation of the decade because it not only offers users a way to display content they have created, but also offers other users a way to easily share content that they like.

But the 2000s are the Decade of YouTube not because of technology, but because of cultural impact.  In 2006, YouTube had a profound impact on politics, famously changing the course of the Virginia U.S. Senate race (and, likely, the course of the 2008 Presidential nomination). In 2008, Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the Presidency in a YouTube video.

But more important than that, activists have used YouTube to make their case on a number of issues through short videos that have been passed from one person to another.  Activists have taken down ACORN with a YouTube video.  Both sides of the health care debate have made their cases with short online videos.

In fact, the current political climate almost necessitates thinking in terms of short, catchy videos.  If you can’t make your case with a funny or poignant two-to-four-minutevideo, you simply cannot win.

It extends to entertainment, too – from Susan Boyle to Saturday Night Live, the availability of short video has served to help turn rank-and-file viewers into unwitting advertisers with the click of a forwarded email.

A Facebook app for the rest of us!

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Digital public affairs firm Grassroots Enterprises launched a Facebook application which allows users to celebrate Festivus – the annual holiday which involves an unadorned aluminum pole, Feats of Strength, and – most importantly – the airing of grievances. Grassroots Enterprises has focused on that last one, allowing you to tell your Facebook friends that, in the words of Frank Costanza, “I got a lot of problems with you people.”

The app itself is fun, and shows prospective clients what Grassroots Enterprises can do. Plus, it’s a great way to celebrate this storied holiday.

Specter the rubber stamp

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Online video makes it a little bit easier to hold a politician’s words against him or her.  Sometimes campaigns employ “truth squads” to follow their opponents around, recording their speeches, hoping for some embarrassing sound bit.

The folks at Pat Toomey’s Senate campaign didn’t even have to go that far.  Today, they released a video demonstrating Senator Arlen Specter’s changing rhetoric on his allegiance to the majority party in the Senate.  Notably, all of these are on national programs – underscoring the distance Sen. Specter has established between himself and Pennsylvanians.

Twitter, YouTube look back on 2009

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

This week, both Twitter and YouTube released their 2009 trends list, much as Google did a few weeks back.  Unlike Google, though, these trend lists say more about the way each site is used rather than social trends.

Twitter Trends: The Iranian election was not the top story of the year in American media, but it did top Twitter’s news trends list – largely because Twitter itself was such an important tool in organizing street demonstrations.  In Entertainment, movies Paranormal Activity and District 9 ranked highly.  Both became early examples of what is being called the “Twitter effect.”  Real-time fan reviews on social networks gave both films an instant box-office boost.  (The same effect may have sapped the excitement around other top-Twitter-trenders GI Joe and Watchmen, both of which did worse than expected.

Predictably, there were other trends that lend credence to the “I’m-sitting-on-the-porch” pointlessness of Twitter when misused.  However, these examples also speak to the potential advantage of Twitter as an organizing tool – whether the goal is overthrowing an unpopular regime or flocking to a better-than-expected movie.

YouTube Trends: YouTube is interesting in that it can report two trends: the most-watched videos and the search terms.

The top viewership trends on YouTube centered around you-gotta-see-this viral sensations such as Susan Boyle’s performance on Britain’s Got Talent and the famous wedding party entrance to the tune of Chris Brown’s “Forever.”

Top search trends, which were broken out by month, centered around news and entertainment events but weren’t always directly related.  For instance, the death of Michael Jackson led to an increase in searches for the Thriller music video.  What does this mean?  Probably that a generation that doesn’t remember the dawn of the music video era was looking for a famous short film that was frequently discussed but seldom seen.  YouTube’s slogan is “Broadcast Yourself,”  but it may as well be “Catch what you missed.”

Year in review lists are a chance to look back at the big stories of 2009, but those are common knowledge.  Digging into the trends can, however, show how people are using the online tools – and give insight on how to reach them.