McDonnell has poll-mentum

The latest Washington Post poll puts Bob McDonnell nine points ahead of Creigh Deeds in the race to be Virginia’s next governor.  More telling about the zeitgeist in the Old Dominion though is the compilation of various polls pulled together by Virginia-based consultancy McGuire-Woods.

Most of the polls, which track the race at varying points since the summer, have McDonnell performing fairly consistently in each poll.  While the individual polls differ (one has the Republican in the 53-55% range, the other has him bouncing between 48% and 51%) in each poll he maintains a consistent range.  Deeds is much less consistent – the Post poll has him swinging between a low of 39% in early August to a high of 47% in mid-September. In each poll, however, Deeds appears to have dipped from his high water mark since mid-September.

What does it all mean?  Well, McDonnell has maintained a steady stream of support – even as Deeds tried to get mileage out of his 20-year-old grad school writings and paint him as a Bible-thumping Cro-magnon who would do more to hurt the cause of women than Ike Turner and  Amp energy drink combined.  And where Deeds did make inroads, his campaign’s lack of a positive message – or even a coherent one – meant he couldn’t keep the support.

If these trends hold up, it wouldn’t be surprising if McDonnell’s get-out-the-vote efforts on election day are more successful and he outperforms the opinion polls.  McDonnell voters have a candidate to vote for, which is actually motivating on election day; Deeds voters have a candidate to vote against, which is less exciting.

Bad Deeds

With his campaign seemingly obsessed with Bob McDonnell’s grad school thesis,  Creigh Deeds was starting to sound like a one-trick-pony.  As John McCain learned in 2008, defining your campaign is difficult if the race becomes a referendum on your opponent.  But Deeds found a way to make it even harder on himself with his discussion on transportation:

Barring some scandal or monumental shift, this is the defining moment of the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race.  Bob McDonnell has been consistent, if unexciting.  This clips makes it tough for Deeds to answer that consistency.  And it’s tough to be exciting when you split policy hairs about raising one type of tax versus another.

Perhaps Deeds was trying to excite the Democratic base by channeling Ted Kennedy.

“Read the Thesis” means “Read our parts of the Thesis”

In the Commonwealth I currently call home, the fight for Virginia’s governorship is becoming downright Jerseyan thanks to Creigh Deed’s attempt to leverage an old grad school paper written by Bob McDonnell.

Deeds is following an important rule – when negative information is out there about an opponent, the best thing is to keep it alive for as long as possible.  Since the McDonnell thesis is 90 pages long, the Deeds folks have selected the juiciest clips and added their editorial content.  It’s a good way for them to excite a base which is currently unexcited and raise some money.

Missing in a lot of the coverage is a link to the actual thesis.  I had to do about 20 minutes of searching before I found and downloaded McDonnel’s work.  If you haven’t actually read the thesis, it really is heavy on the involvement of church and family, but also has some harsh treatment of federal social programs – such as welfare, which was reformed six years later.

Since few voters will bother to read 90 pages, they may go back to their own memories of writing college papers.  How many people who took political science or current events courses would want their words revisited?   During my time at UMass, the Journalism department offered a class called “The Press and the Third World.”  I took it during my sophomore year, and usually sat next to a friend of mine with whom I worked at the campus radio station’s sports department.  (The class fulfilled a requirement for our major, but we were both aspiring sports journalists.  The subject matter was not in our area of expertise.)  Every Tuesday, our professor would look over the New York Times – what he called the “newspaper of record” for America – and express disgust that the Third World was rarely covered.  And when it was, he would express disgust that the stories would only cover corruption, violence, or the bizarre.

We could have pointed out that the local Springfield, Mass. television stations only covered corruption, violence, or the bizarre in Western Massachusetts, or that regional news outlets usually cover the regions they are based in.  We could have pointed out that his gripe was with media in general, not in American media’s treatment of the Third World.  Actually, one of our classmates brought that up during discussion one day, and was shouted down by other students as the professor encouraged them.  My friend and I shut our mouths, parroted back the professor’s comments when it was time to take a test, accepted our A- grades and went back to WMUA to cover sports.  The content of those papers would be wholly inconsistent with the content of this blog, but the Worker’s World Party might enjoy them.  (Although, I believe I criticized Jon Stewart’s coverage of the Middle East in my final paper.)

With a heavily college-educated voting populace who can identify with the college writing process, McDonnell’s thesis may not have quite the impact that Deeds would hope.

Leadership with a side of crazy

Senator Jim Webb’s interview in Esquire is worth a read. I always thought Webb had one or more screws loose upstairs, but he gave a great answer when asked about his legacy:

When I first came in people started talking about this could be your legacy project or that could be your legacy project and I said, “No, my staff is my legacy project.” We’ve got people in here who are going to do some really great things in their lives.

That’s a rare type of leadership in Your Nation’s Capital – someone who feels responsible to the staff that works so hard for him. Maybe, I thought, Webb isn’t as loco as I thought.

Then I kept reading, to the point where Webb was asked about finishing his most recent group:

But then my son, we had gotten a tattoo together when he was like eighteen, nineteen, something like that, so he goes, “We’ve got to finish that tattoo.” So I celebrated my book and he celebrated getting into Maryland by finishing up our tattoos.

There’s the Jim Webb we know and love…