Tag: US Senate

Untold Tales of Massachusetts

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

In discussing the Scott Brown victory with friends and colleagues over the past few days, some angles of the race incredibly haven’t been picked up by the endless mainstream news media coverage.

#1: Specter’s Swap caused the Bay State flop

A casual conversation with a veteran campaign operative brought up an interesting angle to Brown’s victory: that  Arlen Specter may have unwittingly delivered this seat to Republican control with his April party switch.

Back in April, Specter’s switch didn’t just make the rallying cry of “The 41st Vote” relevant, it also eliminated the Republican primary between the liberal Specter and conservative Pat Toomey.  Remember Toomey had just barely lost a 2004 primary challenge and was poised to overtake Specter in 2010 – if he had the right resources.

If you were a conservative donor somewhere outside of Massachusetts or Pennsylvania, to whom would you donate money if you had to choose: a well-known candidate who had legitimate shot to help return the Senate to its roots, or a long-shot barely-known state senator trying to take Ted Kennedy’s seat?  Specter’s swap in April made Brown the best investment when his nine point poll deficit was announced earlier this month.

Who said Arlen Specter never helped the GOP?

#2:  Speaking of polling…

Remember how Democrats were roundly criticizing Rasmussen polls for supposedly being skewed in favor of Republicans?  Well, it was Rasmussen who first signaled that this race may be closer than the conventional wisdom would suggest it could be.

#3: Jack E. Robinson helped break the “color barrier” for the Massachusetts Congressional Delegation

No, it isn’t THAT Jackie Robinson, and that “color barrier” is, of course, blue.  Robinson has been a Republican candidate for multiple state offices since his 2000 challenge of Ted Kennedy, but is considered something of a joke among Massachusetts Republicans.  Yet Brown took him at least semi-seriously in their primary match-up.

The contested primary was no contest – Brown won 89% of the vote.  But Mike Rossettie, who blogs at RedMassGroup (and used to run the political machine that was the UMass Republican Club) made the point that the primary was an opportunity to campaign, drum up name recognition, and win endorsements and free media.

And now, the lovely Massachus-ettes!

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

From the cradle of the American Revolution comes the news that Scott Brown raised $1.3 million in the last 24 hours (in response to a money bomb request) while his Democratic opponent misspelled “Massachusetts” in her TV ads.

Giddy with the good news, Republicans may be setting themselves up for a big disappointment in next week’s special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy’s seat – and if expectations are not managed,that could affect the media chatter on cable news over the next several months.

Though the idea of a red flag rising up in a blue state is appealing, Republicans must remember that this is an “against-the-spread” race – so a margin of defeat within 5-7 percentage points is as good as a win.  And followers of national political trends shouldn’t assume a state’s voters will see things the same way.

After all – the Kennedys weren’t a legacy at Harvard because they could spell.

Retirement planning

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The double-barreled retirements of Senators Dodd and Dorgan – combined with the revelations that Democratic frontrunnerswill be giving up bids to claim and maintain (respectively) in Michigan and Colorado – launched speculation of what possibilities await the Republican party in 2010.

In the Senate, the Democrats’ prospects have actually brightened.  Dodd’s seat would have been a near lock for a Republican pickup.  In both Connecticut and North Dakota, new Democratic candidates can run against the status quo without being tainted by the failures of the previous or current Congress.

And nationally, while Dodd and Dorgan have generated some Republican excitement, these types of anouncements are better done early in a cycle than late.  Like ripping off a band-aid in one fell swoop, early retirements allow adequate time to allow the media story of a flailing party to run its course and to recruit and fund replacements on the ballot.

There are going to be more calls for Senate Democrats to retire, though, as several incumbents have polled weakly.  But of all the flagging incumbents, the one who might be most likely could be Majority Leader Harry Reid – even if there is no obvious replacement for him on the ticket.

In many respects, Reid is in the same position as Tom Daschle was in 2004 – a vulnerable national party leader whose prominence caused some within his own state to feel he had lost touch with them.  And like Daschle, Reid will fight not only Republicans within his own state, but GOP donors and volunteers from across the country who sense blood in the water and are hungry for a win that would officially end the “Republican Party is Dying” media story (for a few years, at least).

That kind of energy fueling a get out the vote operation could cause a 5% bounce, seriously hurting not only Reid, but other Democrats… including gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, the Majority Leader’s son.

Mass hysteria

~ Jim Eltringham ~ 2 Comments

In an early surprise of 2010, Republican State Senator Scott Brown is picking up steam in the special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left vacant by Ted Kennedy’s death last year.  Of course, he’d need a lot of steam, since even Rasmussen’s polls put him nine points behind Attorney General Martha Coakley – who still polls at 50%.  A deeper reading of the poll shows some reasons for even further optimism, though:of those who “definitely” plan to vote, Brown’s disadvantage sinks to 2%.  In a special election in January in New England, leading among independents and the most passionate voters is enough to be within striking distance.

Massachusetts Republican-leaning bloggers from conservative thinker Dan Flynn to scum-of-the-Earth, fake-bloody-sock-wearing Curt Schilling have expressed excitement about Brown’s run.  And given the political environment in Massachusetts, this is an against-the-spread race.  If Brown finishes within 5-10 points on election day, he’ll start the media narrative that, even in the bluest of blue states, support for the Obama agenda is wavering.  And it will help excite the Bay State Republican Activists who would be crucial for later contests – including a Governor’s race later this year.

“I know it’s the law, but I’m a Kennedy.”

~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Massachusetts state law isn’t handed down by decree from the Kennedy compound in Hyannis – yet.  So Ted Kennedy has had to politely ask the leaders of his state government to change the laws which govern the filling of a Senate vacancy to allow the governor to directly appoint the next junior Senator from the Bay State.  Kennedy, who has been absent from most of the current Senate term, claims to be worried about Massachusetts having “continuity of representation.”  It seems clear that his worry stems from the current health care debate.

Despite its reputation as a deep blue abyss, Massachusetts Republicans have done well in statewide elections for most of the last two decades.  Those victories came on the back of an electorate which is largely registered “independent.”  Consider also some other possibilities: a bruising Democratic primary, or the chance of an independent jumping into the race (like former Democrat Tim Cahill, who is running an independent campaign for Governor).

It adds up to a lot more than a special election for an iconic seat in the Senate: it adds up to a multi-faceted referendum on President Obama’s health care reform plans.  And since it’s Massachusetts, where a Kennedy clone is expected, there are actually many ways this election can be portrayed as a “loss” for the President – and, more significantly, to the type of health care Kennedy champions.

Kennedy could have avoided this by stepping down several months ago, when a favorable political environment and an excited Democratic base would have made the popular vote on his hand-picked successor a formality.  Kennedy lost that opportunity, which is why he is now asking the state to crown his heir by selection, rather than election.