3 Ways the Democrats Won on 4/15

And that isn’t counting a penny of tax money, either.

Yesterday was a big news day. Tea partiers marched here in DC and elsewhere to define their core principle: that the federal government is too big, that high taxes siphon money out of the economy, and that government programs tend to make matters worse, not better. Overall, yesterday’s messaging seemed positive for limited government activists.

But the opposition was smart, too.  Nationally, Democrats drove three well-timed news stories – two by President Obama, one by Sen. Harry Reid – that added up to a communications masterstroke.

1.  President Obama announced we’re goin’ to Mars (eventually).

This was a good story to grab headlines on the other side of the tax day protests.  Instead of trying to directly engage, President Obama simply highlighted a use of taxpayer money that many folks from both sides of the aisle agree with: scientific research.  The space program specifically creates tons of jobs not only in research but in manufacturing the components of Major Tom’s tin can.

You can’t answer a call for lower taxes with the stance that taxes are just fine.  However, showing a positive use of tax dollars can undermine that message.  It wasn’t a happy coincidence – the Florida trip has been on the President’s schedule for weeks, if not months.

There’s another, more subtle attempt at differentiation here, too.  The announcement of an advanced science program will now be played on the same newscast with footage of grassroots protesters – citizen activists who, in their haste to participate, misspell signs and don’t have a staff of speechwriters to help them articulate their views.  Without actually saying it, Obama gets to present his side as better-educated and smarter than the knee-jerk, anti-tax tea partiers.

2.  President Obama signed an executive order permitting hospital visitation rights to same sex couples.

This is another point of differentiation – and a chance to bait his opponents.  Most of the focus of tea party activism has been on fiscal policy, and many Americans tend to agree with the most conservative segment of the electorate that the government spends too much and spends it wastefully.  For social issues, there is less common ground, and yesterday’s announcement has the potential to begin peeling off moderate voter support from the Republicans.

Making this announcement on a busy news day means that there won’t be much media discussion – unless someone at a tax day rally goes off message, and gets captured in a YouTube video proselytizing about moral codes.  Then it feeds the idea that tea parties are run by intolerant bigots.  It’s a win-win for Obama – either his announcement slips almost completely under the radar, or it’s a chance to take shots at the other side.

3.  Sen. Reid announced that financial reform package will hit the U.S. Senate floor next week.

The Democratic talking points for November are already written: Republicans are the party of Wall Street.  They will attempt to make this distinction with a bad financial services reform package scheduled to hit the floor next week.

Like the other two examples, Reid’s announcement serves to distinguish the Democrats from limited government activists by calling for a larger government for an ostensibly good cause – safeguarding consumers and investors.

There’s also a great strategy in this timing that has nothing to do with tea parties but everything to do with tax day.  The folks who would be most likely to oppose this legislation would be financial professionals, who understand that it isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  If they had the time to do it, they might rally their customers and colleagues, making the case that the bill would actually hurt efforts to keep the players in the financial system honest, and mobilize a strong push against the bill.  They haven’t had time, of course, because over the last two weeks, financial professionals have been working around the clock at their day jobs – because yesterday was April 15.  So when the bill hits the floor next week, they won’t be ready to stir up opposition.

Gearing up already?

Passion is important in politics because it helps win over the uncommitted moderate voters; excited activists are the ones making phone calls, dragging people to the polls, and giving one side the image of a winner.  In 2008, then-candidate Obama’s campaign enjoyed demonstrable shows of emotion from his supporters.  In 2010 that excitement is trending toward the right – so far.

But it isn’t to early (or too late) for the President and his allies to begin letting some air out of that balloon.  The further he can create the perception of a gulf between conservative activists and the values of moderate voters, the more Republican chances in 2010 and 2012 will deflate.

Diluting the tea

Claims of racial epithets and gay-bashing have diffused the impact of the crowds that descended on the Capitol last weekend.  The images on TV of citizens rallying by the thousands were amazing; the allegations that some of those citizens used ugly, personal, and unintelligent attacks.

Democrats have used the alleged incidents to criticize tea partiers – and it certainly gives them a convenient way to shift the debate away from the massive amounts of people who showed up to oppose a government-mandated reorganization of the health care system.

Far be it from me to say that Democrats are trying to use race to scare people out of siding with their opposition.  But it wouldn’t be the first time.

The real problem here isn’t what racial epithets may or may not have been used.  Anyone who has worked in legitimate Republican and conservative circles knows that racists tend to be booted out as soon as they are discovered.  The racial arsonists of the left start enough fires on their own, they don’t need any kerosene.

Coffee or Tea?

In an upcoming appearance on the Matt Lewis Show, Matt and I discuss the Coffee Party – the ragtag band advocating for the expansion of government in opposition to the Tea Party’s ragtag band advocating for less government.  The American electorate has therefore been delineated into two camps: “Gimme, Gimme, Gimme, I Need, I Need!” and “Relax, I Got This Under Control.”  “Democrat” and “Republican” have run their course.

I mistakenly thought the Coffee Party was a clever invention of DailyKos or some other established leftward organization, but the Washington Post proved me wrong – it was a clever invention of a grassroots activist.  But the main challenge they face is evident in their name.  They have defined themselves more through who they are not than who they are.

“The conservative answer to [BLANK]” has been the movement’s white whale for years.  “Conservative answers” to Facebook, YouTube, DailyKos, the Barack Obama Campaign, the New York Times, Digg, and countless other online and offline institutions have been launched and, at best, met with limited success.  In contrast, groups like the Tea Parties and Top Conservatives on Twitter have used existing infrastructure to accomplish something unique.

If the Coffee Party seeks to be the liberal answer to the Tea Party, they may be mimicking the conservative movement more than they know.

Oh look, there’s The Point flying away

The National Tea Party Convention, which starts today, has been criticized for being a thinly-veiled attempt to profit off of grassroots excitement.  Whether or not the criticism is valid, the event has reportedly drawn 1,000 activists from across the country.  Event organizers are now expected to announce a national organizing strategy for 2010:

Volunteers here intend to propose a series of broad “First Principles” which have already been generally embraced by most Tea Party chapters around the country. They include: fiscal responsibility, upholding the constitution, and national security… Once elected to office, members would be required to join a Congressional Tea Party Caucus, attend regular meetings and be held accountable for the votes they cast. Those who stray from the Tea Party path would risk losing it’s support and a likely re-election challenge.

Here’s a major flaw: tea party participants across the country were largely dissatisfied with either party and almost universally with the system of incumbency and party politics which had taken over DC.  For movements that rail against centralization, tTop-down organizing structures are doomed to fail.

NPR’s (unnecessary) mea culpa

NPR has sort of apologized in a post by their ombudsman for the controversy drummed up by this cartoon:

The cartoon drew the venom of conservative commenters for both its use of the loaded term “tea-bagger” and the fact that it was summarily dismisssive of the tea party movement.  And though the cartoon has an undeniable ideological bent, the real problem here is not with NPR.  There are two issues at play.

First, conservatives in the Tea Party movement have not found a way to own the term “teabagging.”  There are ways to do so, but they require an attitude adjustment (or, some might say, an attitude problem) that many establishment conservative movement organizations are unlikely to accept.

Second – and more importantly – is an important aspect of all conservative cries of media bias.  Consider this reply from an NPR staffer:

“Would it be nice if there were other Web-original cartoons from other perspectives to run with Fiore?” said [NPR News Executive Editor Dick] Meyer. “Sure. We think there are and we’ve been looking for a while in fact. And I think criticism that we don’t have a conservative cartoon is certainly legitimate and reasonable.”

The problem isn’t really that Mark Fiore made a cartoon that skewers the right, it’s that the right isn’t in a position to skewer back.

The Left’s tea party

The left in American politics loves to claim the somewhat disorganized, unpolished Tea Party movement amounts to a hostile takeover of the GOP by fringe lunatics.  But to better understand the unrest that gave rise to the Tea Partiers on the right, one might look at what TechPresident called “The Obama Disconnect.”

When the Obama campaign of 2008 became the Obama government of 2009, it meant moving away from theoretical campaign promises and into the process of regulating and legislating.  Meanwhile, the famed campaign apparatus – including the 13 million strong database and the online infrastructure – became “Organizing for America,” or OFA

Now, activists are frustrated with OFA.  TechPresident chronicled the plight of Marta Evry, an Obama campaign worker who remained active after the election.  Evry is disappointed in the Administration’s efforts to pass a health care bill despite losses on key provisions for liberal ideology – points such as a public option and expanding abortion services.

It’s much the same energy that conservative activists have right now.  And just as Tea Party-inspired excitement does not necessarily translate to blind support for Republicans, left wing disillusionment with Democrat incumbents will soften their prospects in 2010.

Happy Tea Party Day

On this date in history, a group of rabble-rousers dumped tea into Boston Harbor to protest what they determined was excessive taxation and government regulation.   Depending on perspective, they were either patriots carrying the banner of freedom, reckless instigators, or terrorists.  (To quote the fine philosopher Obi-wan Kenobi,  “Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view.”)

In today’s political parlance, the term “Tea Party” means something entirely different.  But curiously, this movement which took it’s name from the 1773 event also carries some of the same baggage.

There can be no doubt that the tea party events have created excitement around conservative activism that hasn’t been seen in some time.  Colin Delaney of Tech President notes that the movement boasts savvy organizers, focusing on creating online fund raising and voter data networks. And while in generic ballots, so-called “Tea Party Candidates” have polled better than Republicans, that doesn’t necessarily mean electoral defeat for the GOP.  It will encourage establishment Republicans to take the small-government ideals of the Tea Party movement seriously.

The Tea Party movement does have one key challenge, and that is the plethora of groups taking credit.  As the old saying (not by Obi-Wan) goes, failure is an orphan, but success has many fathers.  As established, inside-the-beltway conservatives angle for the support (and money) of the tea partiers, the risk is that activists will be turned off by the perception that outsiders are taking over their movement.