3 things the NRA got wrong today

The National Rifle Association was already in a tough position when Wayne LaPierre took to the podium this morning.  A full week after the violence in Connecticut, the nation’s biggest advocate of gun rights broke its self-imposed silence to offer their side of the recent debate.

LaPierre’s calls for increased school security and have been widely panned.  That’s no surprise: the press conference really was a no-win situation, which they must have known when they decided it would be held on the Friday before Christmas weekend.  There is nothing LaPierre could have said that would have drawn a positive response; this is an “against-the-spread” PR situation where the biggest victory is in making the smallest waves.

Yet there were three points that stood out in the official NRA response that clouded even that goal:

1. Making it all about the NRA.  LaPierre explained his organization’s week-long silence as deferential to the community in mourning, but said he was forced to speak up:

Because for all the noise and anger directed at us over the past week, no one — nobody — has addressed the most important, pressing and immediate question we face:  How do we protect our children right now, starting today, in a way that we know works?

This has the makings of a pretty good thesis statement except, but it is off the mark on a couple points.  First, the noise and anger was not directed exclusively at the NRA in the last week.  Horrific events like those in Newtown stir the most visceral emotions; and in that maelstrom of sadness and pain thinking thoughts like “Ban all guns now!” is completely logical.  I’m sure there were plenty of freedom-loving Americans who, in the hours after the news of the shooting broke, would have gladly surrendered their Second Amendment rights to prevent a repeat of those events.  It would have been nice to acknowledge that – though there were plenty who took the opportunity to bash the NRA, those people whose allegiance to the Second Amendment was shaken a bit shouldn’t be lumped in with the Michael Moores of the world.

Second, people have been asking “How do we protect our children?” for the last week – nonstop.

Framing their statement this way makes the NRA look extremely narcissistic and a bit paranoid.  Yes, they will be under intense scrutiny from their political enemies, but that’s not who the most important audience was this morning.  The NRA needed to demonstrate understanding of the greater understanding of last week’s events to connect with the broader public.

2. Blaming the media.  The NRA followed a call for more security in schools with an admonishment of the media for their framing of the debate:

Now, I can imagine the shocking headlines you’ll print tomorrow morning: “More guns,” you’ll claim, “are the NRA’s answer to everything!” Your implication will be that guns are evil and have no place in society, much less in our schools.

Perhaps this was an attempt at inoculation – framing the response before the inevitable response came.  But chastising the media while standing in front of the media only encourages more negative coverage.

3. Talking about guns.  Here’s the crux of the problem: the shooting in Connecticut wasn’t about guns, it was about a sick person who took children’s lives for reasons the general public does not know yet.  The discussions about gun control are one aspect of the reaction to the shooting.  Unfortunately, that’s the area of discussion where the NRA decided to dwell.

The NRA is charged with defending its members’ rights to own guns – so it makes sense that the gun control angle would be the policy arena that was of most concern.  But by acknowledging only that angle, the NRA legitimized the idea that the reaction to Newtown should be exclusively about gun control.  Even when LaPierre mentioned other factors – such as American culture’s promotion of violence through video games – it was framed as the shifting of blame away from gun ownership.

By presenting this morning’s press conference within the context of the gun control debate, the NRA missed an opportunity to reduce the gun control element by elevating and expanding the overall conversation about what to do in the aftermath of Sandy Hook.  In many ways, the NRA allowed its opponents to shape this morning’s statement – which is a sure recipe to lose your point.

How It Could Have Gone Better

The reality is that the NRA had something important and possibly resonant to say.  After expressing his sympathies (which he did), LaPierre could have stated that in a situation like this it is important to think clearly and rationally to find solutions which will keep our children safe – and not be distracted by policies which do nothing to protect our children but allow politicians to pat themselves on the back.  We should not and cannot, LaPierre could have said, sacrifice progress for the sake of easy motion.  (There would have been some context mentioning the NRA as a four-million-person membership organization, which LaPierre worked in well this morning.)

LaPierre could have continued: Over the coming weeks and months there will be necessary and important discussions about what caused the horror in Connecticut – discussions in which the NRA will lend whatever expertise we can.  Those discussions will surely involve expanded mental health services, school security, and (naturally) the limitation of gun rights.

On that last item, LaPierre might have noted that the reaction was understandable in the wake of such events.  Without accusing anyone of trying to score political points, he might have called attention to a high level of misinformation and misunderstanding floating around in the media and in social media discussions.  Then he could have unveiled guncontrolfacts.com (the URL is available for not that much money) or some other new website dedicated to illuminating that discussion with truth – because, again, the ultimate goal is to find solutions that work.  A question-and-answer session would have been highly contentious, but would have been better than ignoring questions.

And that would have been it, because the goal of today would have been to return to the public eye, express understanding and a willingness to talk, and then to let the other side overreact if they felt the need to.

There would have been no Asa Hutchinson discussing a task force to put armed guards in schools – that policy push could come down the road.  There would be no lambasting of the media or aggressive posturing, and certainly no opinions about the effects of video games and movies.  The reaction from the punditocracy would have still been hostile, but the NRA would be better positioned to mitigate the likely gun control proposals that will emerge from the Biden Commission.

There also would be no shrinking from the NRA’s core values – just a recognition that, sometimes, tone matters, and that an effective response doesn’t mean having all the answers.

Merry Xmas, American Atheists

The American Atheists annual anti-Christian Christmas billboard has attracted it’s annual outrage.  The Catholic League, as expected, issued a response, focusing on the use of iconic imagery of a crucified Jesus.

This has to be the gift that keeps on giving for both groups.

The Atheists can’t be winning many converts to their non-religious religion; their messages are muddied and non-persuasive.  Christmas and Easter tend to be times of year where people identify more with religion, so it isn’t the time to try to take a crowbar and peel off the less devout.  Further, using Christmas images like Santa Claus while arguing against the celebration of Jesus Christ sends a mixed message.

The Christmas season is replete with Christian imagery, which likely cheeses off the hardcore atheists who would write checks to an outfit like American Atheists.  Making a public statement during Advent is the messaging equivalent of letting off steam.  It’s great timing for media coverage, too.

Getting some press attention and giving donors something to write checks for is probably plenty for the enterprise to be called a success.  But it sure isn’t effective for advancing their organization if the idea is to create more atheists.

In so many ways, Christmas is a season of guilt; you may feel guilty about not keeping up with old friends, or that you don’t do more for the less fortunate.  Have you ever been in a Catholic Church in the weeks before Christmas?  It’s packed to the gills with good folks whose lives got away from them and who are trying to slip some extra pew time in before the close of the fourth quarter.  Maybe American Atheist reasons that people would like to shed that guilt; they are incorrect.

We do it because we want to go to church for 52 weeks, but it’s easy to skip a week – just like we give to homeless shelters and food drives and Toys for Tots now because we know we should have earlier, but didn’t.

Christmas is a time when we’re all a bit closer  to the people we want to be.  You might be a religious person who has disagreements with your church’s stance on something or other throughout the year, but Christmas is rarely one of those points of contention.

That makes it pretty easy for a group like the Catholic League to stand up, draw support, and win some favorable coverage.  Who knew they’d get such a nice Christmas gift from an atheist?

Too Conservative to Win?

Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have tag teamed to dominate the news cycles in recent days.  And as the opinionatti of the punditocracy (or whatever fun little nicknames you prefer) struggle to wrap their heads around what a straw poll victory and a late entry into the Presidential sweepstakes mean, they keep asking an intriguing question: Are these candidates too conservative to win a general election matchup against President Barack Obama?

This is especially true of the coverage of Bachmann; but taken together the Minnesota Congresswoman and the Texas Governor really display why this question is, to use the technical terms, BS.

No serious analyst of the race really believes Michele Bachmann has a snowball’s chance in the current residence  of Iowa native John Wayne Gacy.  If she wins the Republican nomination, she will most likely lose badly to the incumbent – maybe not Mondale vs. Reagan bad, but probably Dole vs. Clinton bad.  Bachmann will simply not resonate with a broad audience of American voters.

If Bachmann loses, it will not be for her views but for her tendency for gaffery.  Aside from confusing 20th century alpha male John Wayne with creepy clown artist/serial killer Gacy, Bachmann celebrated the anniversary of Elvis Presley’s death by wishing The King a happy birthday.  For many political viewers, Bachmann’s introduction to the national stage came during a horribly flubbed “tea party response” to the State of the Union address.

The trend line is evident: under the glare of the national spotlight, Bachmann is unpolished, rough, and prone to mistakes.  She is, it seems, an incompetent campaigner.  Audiences who already agree with her message will overlook that, but audiences who need convincing will not.  Those folks will become more accepting of the other, seemingly competent voices who call her extreme.

Then comes the media storyline: Conservative goes down in flames to Mainstream Candidate.

You saw plenty of it in 2010, when tea partiers were blamed for costing Republicans gains in the US Senate. Primary victories by  Sharron Angle in Nevada, Joe Miller in Alaska, and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware were frequently cited as an example of primaries run amok.

All three lost, of course.  Angle and Miller had run-ins with the media that suggested the pressures of the campaign were getting to them; O’Donnell’s campaign was only notable for its ill-advised “I am not a witch” ad.  Meanwhile, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul won their Senate races.  Arch-conservative Ronald Reagan was President; Moderates Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush, and Bob Dole were a half-termer, a one-termer and a no-termer, respectively.

A candidate has to appeal to voters, regardless of where they sit on the political spectrum.  Barack Obama may have been the most ideologically-driven to assume the Presidency since Lyndon Johnson; he was also likeable and projected strength.

As he begins his Presidential campaign, Rick Perry will face the same question as Bachmann: Is he “too conservative to win”?  And whether the eventual Republican nominee is Perry, Bachmann, or even Mitt Romney, the Obama campaign will surely try to stick the “right-wing extremist” label squarely on their metaphorical forehead.

Candidates with good, disciplined messages don’t let those labels stick.

Cross posted at PunditLeague.us.

Windows of Opportunity

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones has a great call to arms for anyone – left or right – who is dissatisfied with the debt deal:

Public opinion is everything. Ronald Reagan was successful because public opinion supported him: he wanted to cut taxes and raise defense spending and so did big chunks of the public. He was leading in a direction that they already wanted to go.

But no matter how many times we try to kid ourselves with one poll result or another, liberals just don’t have that advantage. The public is mostly in favor of raising taxes on the rich — though I suspect its support is pretty soft — but on the bigger issues they mostly aren’t on our side. They think deficits are bad, they don’t trust Keynesian economics, they don’t want a higher IRS bill (who does, after all?), and they believe the federal government is spending too much on stuff they don’t really understand. Conservatives have just flat out won this debate in recent decades, and until that changes we’re not going to be able to make much progress.

Drum has a sizable audience: plenty of conservatives are upset with the way the deal shook out and wouldn’t chalk it up as a wind, just as many liberals and leftists would probably share Drum’s dour assessment.

The problem for either side is indeed public opinion.  There are certain policy positions you can and can’t “sell” to the public at large.  The Mackinac Center, a Michigan-based free market think tank, calls it the Overton Policy Window: for every range of possible outcomes for public policy issues, there are a subset which the public is willing to accept at a given time (or, more accurately, what politicians feel the public is willing to accept).

Drum is really talking about the need to move the Overton window in order to win political battles.  That’s a good way to keep activists motivated after a legislative battle that ends with so much dissatisfaction and compromise.

It’s also something good to keep in mind to those addressing Tea Party activists in the coming months.  For example, I spoke to a conservative columnist the other day who bemoaned the fact that while there are plenty of inside-the-beltway organizations eager to use the grassroots muscle of the tea partiers to advance an agenda, there are few telling them that a compromise might be, politically, the best thing that gets passed.  He was technically right about the need for real leaders to provide more a constructive focus for passionate advocates.  That type of communications will always be doomed, though, unless it’s accompanied by a roadmap to better outcomes in the future.  People don’t want their leaders to tell them what can’t be done; they want leaders ready to change the world – if not today, then tomorrow.

As both Republican and Democrat leaders look to keep their respective bases motivated, it will be important to keep this in mind when discussing the recent debt deal.  Instead of portraying the compromise as a victory, each side must discuss the debt issue in terms of reframing the policy window.

Savior du Jour

The word on the street is that Rick Perry is going to save the Republican Party.

With a primary field that doesn’t seem to satisfy the electorate and/or the media covering the race, the GOP is primed for Perry to ride in on a white horse and seize the nomination.  The Texan inherits his position from a long line of GOP saviors, joining the ranks of Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, and Fred Thompson.  Barbour and Daniels opted out of the 2012 race.  Despite plenty of anticipation for a consensus conservative to jump in and provide Republicans a choice who wasn’t John McCain in 2008, Thompson proved to be what was feared: an entirely unserious candidate.

Why would Rick Perry be any less disappointing?

Like Thompson, Perry could be underestimating the existing primary field – a field which has been doing plenty of behind-the-scenes work to build campaign organizations.  Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Newt Gingrich have been unofficially running their 2012 campaigns since 2008.  Like Barbour and Daniels, he could simply be the empty suit of the week – a fresh face many party leaders hope will have enough appeal to unite various factions of the Republican party and win critical middle-of-the-road votes to make 2012 closer.

Perry’s deliberations suggest he understands just what he would be getting into if he throws his hat into the ring – and that, like fellow governors Daniels and Barbour, he would rather not declare his candidacy unless he’s prepared to do what it takes to go all the way.  If that is the case, then Perry could be formidable in the primary, even with the ground he has to make up.  Still, there are plenty of areas where Perry is behind, such as establishing field offices, raising money, and building other elements of a successful campaign.

The problem isn’t with Perry or his nascent campaign but with the “savior mentality.”  It creates expectations which are very difficult to live up to – and with expectations so important during primaries, Perry and his campaign would be wise to keep that mentality in check.

Flake or B… uh, Witch?

Cross-posted on PunditLeague.us.

The top two Republican women who have made the most news recently have been Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann – the latter for a recent rise in several Iowa polls, the former because… well, because Sarah Palin seems like she will be a political headline fixture for the next few months at least.  But there have also been a few rumblings about South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley playing hardball in her state government – rumblings which are becoming more relevant as Haley becomes a short-lister for the 2012 Vice Presidential spot and a potential 2016 candidate.

The stories about Bachmann and Palin are familiar; both are treated like intellectual lightweights.  Bachmann’s campaign was picking up some steam when she derailed her own momentum with an unfortunate accidental reference to a serial killer in her announcement speech (though, to be fair, she may just be a fan of creepy clown paintings).  It’s familiar territory for Palin, who has been mocked for being vacuous since she failed to make fun of Katie Couric for thinking newspapers still matter.

A completely different story is unfolding about Haley.  Republicans and Democrats are both painting her as a shrewd and deft politician wearing ambition on her sleeve, a sort of center-right Hillary Clinton with clear goals, an idea of how to get there, and the willingness to carry out an aggressive (or even ruthless) plan to do it. The derogatory term for a woman like those qualities rhymes with “witch,” and it looks like her opponents are ready to hang the scarlet B around Haley’s neck.

The Bachmann/Haley stories lead to a disheartening observation: women in politics tend to be portrayed as either airheaded or hardheaded, with very little middle ground.  It isn’t a case of anti-conservative media bias, either.  When George W. Bush tripped over his words, the mistakes were evidence of the former President’s folksy charm.  Barack Obama’s admonitions to his political opponents to “get serious” by acquiescing to his demands receives praise for taking charge.  Each has their detractors, but neither has received the same level of caricature  as Palin or Clinton.

So if one has to choose, which is better?  Palin and Bachmann are discovering the pitfall of being a populist woman.  Their ability to boil down issues to sound bites has seemingly backfired; their less-than-favorable coverage playing on their supposed intellectual shortcomings has made them almost impossible to envision as winning national candidates.

Maybe, for the sake her political future, it’s not such a bad thing for Nikki Haley to channel her inner Meredith Brooks.

AARP grows up. Sort of.

I’m 32, but I’ve been getting AARP prospect mailings for several months now.  (As one might expect, my young trophy wife gets a kick out of that.)  Up until last week, joining would have been unthinkable even if I was of eligible age: for all the discounts, for all the membership benefits, the fact remains that AARP’s dabbling in politics more often than not resulted in advocacy for positions I disagreed with – specifically, their support for Ponzi schemes like Social Security.

Why would I pay my hard-earned money to people who wanted to separate me from my hard earned money?

AARP, though, has gone Romney on Social Security.  Last week, America’s voice for (some) seniors said it would be open to cuts, a position it has since waffled a bit on.

If AARP decides to take a firm stand, the facts and popular opinion are on their side.  Social Security is untenable as it exists now, and people understand that completely retiring at 65 is a pipe dream – unless, of course, they have taken the steps necessary in their youth to prepare for that.  A recent study that AARP commissioned showed that four of five Baby Boomers expect to delay retirement for five years, one in seven doesn’t believe they will be able to retire.

People are starting to get how dumb the idea of government-sponsored retirement starting in what is now middle age is.

I’m not running out to join AARP anytime soon – after all, they are still complaining about other entitlement programs – but their flip on Social Security is significant.  On the surface, it looks like the group realized just how bad the program’s situation is right now.  Supporting Social Security and perpetuating the Ponzi scheme does nothing for me and the other folks in their 30’s already getting AARP mailers.

Incidentally, this is a great opportunity for an offensive from the supporters of small government.  Private and public thank you notes to AARP might help their flip go mainstream and show other people just how dangerous rampant entitlement spending can be.

After all, if AARP can be convinced, maybe there’s hope for the population at large?

 

 

 

Sarah Palin needs James Carville

Here’s the headline from Sarah Palin’s Facebook post yesterday: “Another ‘WTF’ Obama Foreign Policy Moment.”  The content of Palin’s post, by and large, is actually quite interesting stuff about how many secrets we are simply giving away to the Russians.  That’s a pretty intelligent topic, and Palin does grasp it.  But even in discussing an issue over which she has mastery, Palin leans on blunt-force and simplistic messaging.  “WTF” is, of course, shorthand for “what the f—.”

It’s vulgar and coarse and unfitting a President.  And as long as Palin continues to look unpresidential, she will only be considered a Presidential contender by a cadre of Ron Paul-esque followers and the “lamestream” media she claims to abhor but who gives her more attention than she currently deserves.  She will win nothing.

A Presidential adviser might be able to get away with such language, and perhaps Palin needs a James Carville.  Bill Clinton could never have dismissed allegations of his extramarital affairs as the product of dragging a $100 bill through a trailer park.  Carville did, and in doing so he said what many people were thinking but afraid to say.   He acted as the lightning rod for criticism, but he got his boss’s message out there.

Instead, Palin tries to be both the candidate and the firebrand.  She too often talks down to an electorate that is really looking for someone who can talk up to them.

This is part of the challenge Palin and other outsiders face in political campaigns; the inability to surround themselves with media-savvy professionals leads to clumsy, overly populist messaging.  Sure, a few will take it seriously, but most will either dismiss it out of hand or respond with a quizzical “WTF?”

 

T-Paw’s impeccable timing

He may not win the GOP nomination, but Tim Pawlenty has his timing down pat.

From the carefully timed announcement of his exploratory committee – before any other major contender, but not too early – to his Johnny-on-the-spot criticisms of the current administration, Pawlenty has been quick on the draw at just the right moment.

It happened again today, with Pawlenty’s official announcement of his Presidential bid.

The big story over the weekend was Mitch Daniels bowing out of the race.  The stories about the “weak” Republican field were already written: you saw them after Mike Huckabee’s exit earlier this month, and even after Donald Trump’s withdrawal before that.  Each time that story gets rewritten, it’s bad news for Tim Pawlenty; it makes the Republican field sound like Mitt Romney and the Seven Dwarfs, with him as one of the dwarfs.  (Possibly Bashful.)

By announcing just two days after Daniels’s deferral, Pawlenty answers those stories without whining that he’s being overlooked.  He keeps his donors and activists engaged, and he keeps his campaign moving forward.

And that’s all he has to do right now.  With Daniels stepping aside, the path for Pawlenty to the nomination becomes clearer:  has a sporting shot at winning the Iowa caucuses, and after he’s a very plausible contender in South Carolina and possibly Florida.  Coming out of the early states within striking distance of Romney would make Pawlenty a viable alternative for conservative activists who can’t get excited about Romney’s policy baggage (i.e. health care).

Slow and steady may not sound like the way to win a presidential race, but at this point who’s going to argue with Pawlenty’s timing?

Newt Gingrich, defined

Friend of the Program Matt Lewis posted seven easy steps to follow if you’d like to talk like Newt Gingrich yesterday.  Here’s one that might be Number Eight: Allow others to define the conversation for you.

The latest news cycle on all things Gingrich revolved around his “rocky” entry into the Presidential race – which was “rocky” because of comments he made on policy ideas devised and proposed by others.

This isn’t the first time a Gingrich campaign has suffered a rough start.  Heck, this isn’t even the first time this year a Gingrich campaign has suffered a rough start – the same round of stories were written two months ago, when campaign subordinates couldn’t figure out whether or not Gingrich was actually officially “testing the waters.”

Even Gingrich’s campaign slogan – “Winning the Future Together” – was a phrase he used first, but which has been claimed for 2012 by the incumbent he hopes to defeat.

For another candidate, this might just be a run of bad luck.  Gingrich, on the other hand, has a track record of letting issues define him rather than getting out front and defining issues.  In fact, he has a 15-year track record, stretching back to the days when his Republican Revolutionaries of 1994 got their lunches eaten by Bill Clinton during the budget battles of 1995.

Gingrich has apologized to Paul Ryan and underscored his opposition to forcing people to buy health insurance.  Maybe his comments on both were misunderstood.  He’s still a bad candidate because he has to keep answering these distracting questions – and it’s his inability to drive messages that lead to these questions being asked in the first place.