Rasmussen: high disapproval among Democrats

Democrats who are tired of flogging Fox News are ripping Rasmussen Reports, the polling agency which produces survey results which tend to favor Republicans.  Viewed in conjunction with the fervor with which those on the left attack Fox News, it echoes the shrill media conspiracy theory accustations espoused by the most ardent conservatives of the 1970s and 1980s.  It also reflects a lack of understanding of some facets of public opinion.

For instance, Eric Boehlert of Media Matters accuses Rasmussen of “under-polling” President Obama because the Rasmussen presidential approval ratings tend to be lower than in other polls.  Leaving aside that other polls have largely caught up to that trend, Boehlert ignores the fact that Rasmussen polls samples of likely voters – rather than all adults.  This makes Rasmussen a less reliable source for taking the temperature of the general public but makes for a much more accurate forecast of the only poll that matters – the one held on election day.

Some Democrat operatives have problems that go deeper – citing the wording of questions:

In August, for example, Rasmussen asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement “It’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.”

“Why stop there, Rasmussen? Why not add a parenthetical phrase about how tax cuts regrow hair, whiten teeth, and ensure that your favorite team will win the Super Bowl this year?” responded Daily Kos blogger Steve Singiser, who frequently writes about polls.

Questions like the ones above are fairly common in polling and – with a more sophisticated reading – provide valuable insight for partisans of either stripe.  The question doesn’t measure opinions on tax breaks, it measures the reasons for people’s opinions on tax breaks.  If 80% of the likely voters polled say “yes” to that question, then a Democratic communications operative might recognize his candidate’s need to correlate tax hikes to public, versus personal, benefits.  A Republican operative might try to do the opposite.

A Rasmussen poll which might be even more interesting, though, is whether Democratic “inside baseball” complaints about news organizations and pollsters they perceive to be against them will help win them any support – especially among likely voters.

Playing two sides against Afghanistan

It’s one thing for a politician to draw criticism for a policy from his opponents, but the reaction to President Obama’s Afghani-plan speech last night from the left is potentially more problematic.

Obama’s speech was unsurprising – not only had his plans for troop escalation been the worst kept secret in Washington for weeks, he promised to do as much during the campaign last year.  Still, pundits like Michael Moore – normally a water boy for all issue blue – have issued strongly worded rebukes against such a strategy.

Moore’s warning, in an open letter, that Obama would “destroy the hopes and dreams so many millions have placed in” him suggests that he wasn’t paying attention to the substance of Obama’s campaign rhetoric.  As a likeable candidate, Obama made it easy for folks like Moore to ignore policy details and revel in the fact that their newest candidate wasn’t a wonkish robot (like Al Gore in 2000) or a New England blue blood (like John Kerry).

Unfortunately for the President, that raises expectations to the level of his follower’s wildest dreams – not a good thing in an environment where success or failure often comes down to the size of the yardstick.

New Moon, Old fashioned?

Conservatives complaining about the left-leaning bias of movies and TV shows is nothing new – and with each shrill criticism comes another round of shut-up-and-just-enjoy-the-movie eye rolling.  It turns out the whining comes from both sides of the aisle.

Campus Progress is none too fond of the #1 movie of last weekend; apparently the vampire flick New Moon is rife with disturbing hidden messages. For instance, a conversation about whether werewolves are born as werewolves or whether they choose to become werewolves is decried in light of the lack of gay relationships in the movie.  On top of this is what the author calls:

“[A] disturbingly explicit anti-premarital sex message which ends the movie… despite knowing the Mormon background of Meyer, I couldn’t believe that the director and screenwriter would have let the end credits roll without undertaking some sort of criticism of the ideas espoused by the main characters in the final scene.”

It sounds like these Mormon vampires are undead-set on pushing a social agenda.  Clearly, this movie about werewolves fighting vampires must be answered; and the best way to fight speech is, as always, with speech.  Maybe the folks who agree with Campus Progress can find some way to get a movie made which deals with alternative lifestyles, or one that puts promiscuous teenagers in a more positive light.

Gallup-ing to the right

Fellow UMass alum Dan Flynn points out Gallup’s evidence that Americans are trending more conservative in 2009 than they did in 2008.  The most important aspect of this revelation is the cause: apparently, independents are shifting right. And this wasn’t just self-identification: conservative positions on government involvement in business, union influence, and even gun rights became more popular.

Note that these numbers reflect people’s issue position and not necessarily their political party preference.  As the Republican party is finding out in NY-23, the two are not necessarily one and the same.  Even if the GOP tallies a pair of victories in New Jersey and Virginia next week, the lessons for a return to power nationally may be learned in upstate New York.

Is this why there are so many Viagra ads on the baseball playoffs this year?

A new study reports that young male voters for non-winning 2008 Presidential candidates experienced drops in testosterone levels after the results were announced.  Males who voted for Barack Obama maintained higher levels of testosterone than they otherwise would at night.  Aside from being a little funny, it underscores a simple truth – politics is about more than just rational debates over ideas, but also about emotional and physical reactions to candidates.  Put more simply, politics is of the heart at least as much as it is of the mind.

Texans can be so creative

The Texas A&M chapter of Young Conservatives of Texas found a new way to illustrate what mandated health insurance.  According to CampusReform, they have launched an online petition to oppose the “Health Care Draft.”

Their basic message is good because it makes the health care debate more personal for each individual.  The health care debate takes on a different meaning when the discussion isn’t about insuring everybody but about the fines and jail time you could serve for not having health insurance.

Bad Deeds

With his campaign seemingly obsessed with Bob McDonnell’s grad school thesis,  Creigh Deeds was starting to sound like a one-trick-pony.  As John McCain learned in 2008, defining your campaign is difficult if the race becomes a referendum on your opponent.  But Deeds found a way to make it even harder on himself with his discussion on transportation:

Barring some scandal or monumental shift, this is the defining moment of the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race.  Bob McDonnell has been consistent, if unexciting.  This clips makes it tough for Deeds to answer that consistency.  And it’s tough to be exciting when you split policy hairs about raising one type of tax versus another.

Perhaps Deeds was trying to excite the Democratic base by channeling Ted Kennedy.

Sunday Funnies: Ethics fraud at 7-11

I have some friends and co-workers who have been either working for or volunteering their time for the Chris Christie campaign in New Jersey, and according to them, the election is getting ugly – even by New Jersey standards.  In one of the ultimate pot-and-kettle moves, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine is trying to hang ethics allegations on his opponent – who, incidentally, is one of about a half dozen New Jersey politicians who likely won’t end up in jail at some point or another.

I enjoyed the Christie campaign response – maybe not the most side-splitting political ad ever, but it certainly handles the issue well:

Giving the public options

The battle lines on health care reform are pretty clear, but what isn’t as clear is what each side stands for.  Both Democrats and Republicans have been talking about competing ideas, but the overarching debate is actually one about governing philosophy – and polls still show that the public is somewhat skeptical of the Democrat ideology.

The Democrats’ plan includes a national insurance plan – the now-famous “public option,” a cheaper version of every other insurance plan that somehow, our leaders assure us, won’t put those other insurance companies out of business.  The Republicans’ plan involves driving down costs by limiting liability reform, but there’s a more interesting tidbit buried deep down in their discussion: the idea of each person buying their own insurance, made easier by tax incentives.

Unfortunately, the GOP isn’t trying to change the terms of the debate – something they desperately need to do.  Those who seem to support the Obama plan are helping a bit.  A New York Times Magazine article makes a case in favor of public health care rationing (a concept even the administration avoids like a plague which can’t be treated by an in-network provider) and in doing so, uses the following graphic to make their point:

19health-600

It’s a valid question, and one the “public option” will have to answer – maybe not during the legislative process, but certainly when put into practice.  The first participant in the ABC Obama Health Care infomercial asked a similar question; the President sidestepped and did not answer.

This is a powerful strike against Obamacare, and one Republicans can exploit.  But eventually, bashing health care reform proposals will not help the GOP win elections.  The other side must advance their own brand of health care reform – something completely different, although the seeds are, as aforementioned, already planted.

Our health care system as it currently exists is tied to employment – much like other benefits, such as a retirement pension, have been for decades.  If you work in the same job for a long period of time, that’s good.  But as the American worker becomes ever more likely to switch jobs several times during a career, the employer-based model is simply not as effective.  We no longer live in a company where people get jobs out of high school or college, work for fifty years, and get a pension and a gold watch upon retirement.

A system which promotes portable, individually-purchased health care and health insurance would not only help expand people’s control over their health care, it would drive costs down.  Current health insurance costs are often inflated by the existence of insurance; care for uninsured patients currently costs less than care for insured patients.

No election was ever won on defense, and Republicans – and, for that matter, conservatives – can ill afford to let their opponents draw the battle lines.  In fact has already started, with President Obama claiming the opponents of his plan are “defending the status quo.” As long as this message resonates unanswered, Obama can continue to claim the middle ground while painting his opponents as reactionary forces dug in to withstand change.  Republicans must make their own case that their proactive solutions are better than the opponents.

We Are Republican

This is a video that is a long time coming. It sets a nice tone for Republicans over the next few years, translating exactly how Republican ideas work for people like me. That element – the answer to the question “how does this affect me” – has been missing from the GOP, arguably since the Katrina disaster.

I could do without the references to Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater, though – like Bird, McHale, and Parrish, they aren’t walking through that door.

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