Oh, we definitely know what works… don’t we?

June 25, 2009 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

In ABC’s Obamercial last night, our President gave Billy Mays and the Sham-Wow guy both runs for their respective money by talking a lot without saying much. I missed a few minutes here or there to watch the end of the Yankees/Braves game, but caught the following comment from President Obama (and verified it later through a news story):

There’s a whole bunch of care that’s being provided that every study, that every bit of evidence that we have indicates may not be making us healthier.

There’s a funny thing about scientific evidence: it doesn’t seem to last. In fact, just yesterday National Geographic was reporting on new research which may completely change our understanding of the Earth’s magnetic field and iron core. It touched off a bit of a debate in the scientific community – some are calling the research groundbreaking, some call it junk science. It sounds like the type of argument a Muslim might have with a Jew or a Protestant might have with a Catholic – or it would, if we didn’t all know that science is above such arguments.

The point is that evidence changes. One need only take a tour of the George Washington Masonic Temple in Alexandria, Va. – which sounds scary, but is actually pretty interesting. One of the first stops on the tour discusses Washington’s death, which happened in large part because the standard treatment at the time was blood-letting. A younger doctor who questioned opening Washington’s veins and suggested an alternative treatment was shrugged off.

(None of it matters now, of course, because chances are that Washington would have died at another point in the past 210 years anyway, but he may have squeezed out another few years.)

Politicians deal in absolutes because some issues require it – and the more controversial an issue is, the more firm one must be in order to win public opinion. But I’m not comfortable with Barack Obama telling me and my doctor what is necessary and what isn’t when it comes to my treatment.

Activation is harder than flipping a switch

June 17, 2009 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Bloomberg reports that the first big post-election test of the Obama Campaign’s 13 million-strong activist list may expose confusion and dissension in the ranks. The grassroots activists who responded well to the broad, simple messages of “hope, change, and Obama” are, like the rest of us, a little intimidated by more involved themes like “mandated private insurance, public health plan options, and pre-existing conditions.”

And even more important, not everyone agrees on what a new health plan should look like. There are likely many left-wing Obama supporters among the 13 million strong that feel a nationalized, socialized, single-payer system works best for everyone. They may also feel alienated by the big business support for health care reform – pharmaceutical companies, insurance providers, unions, and other big-money operations smell lots of public dollars, so of course they love the idea of a system where the government hands them over a cut of taxpayer money.

It’s always easier to build a large list based on broad ideas than to engage individuals on specific policy ideas, so don’t expect a swarm of voters to march on Washington DC with banners demanding a public-private cooperative and comprehensive health care system. But Obamacare may not need all that help. I expect the real mobilization will be in certain targeted Cognressional districts in Virginia, North Carolina, and other areas where Republicans hold a seats in district won by Obama in 2008, or in historically Republican districts held by Blue Dog Democrats.

The list may be 13 million, but politics is local. It may only take 1300 well-placed phone calls to change a Congressman’s vote.

A vision of Happy Meals yet to come

January 6, 2009 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

Wired.com has posted a vision for the 2013 Happy Meal. Some of the cool things include a Capri-sun style beverage container that lets you decide just how cherry you want your cherry Coke to be and a disposable iPod.

But their vision has its disturbing parts. First, the promotional tie-in is for Harriet Potter. (Hollywood isn’t exactly imaginationland, so let’s not give them any more recycling ideas.)

Even more bothersome is the warning from the “Health Czar,” which alerts customers to the common sense conclusion that a McDonald’s-exclusive diet is unhealthy. Of all the elements Wired sardonically predicts, this is the most likely to actually come true – depending on how agressively Obama’s celebrity pick for surgeon general wants to pursue anti-fast-food initiatives.

2009: Three Issues to Watch

January 2, 2009 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

The conventional wisdom is that the Republican Party will be more aggressive in 2009 and beyond. They will have to be, since they are looking at a filibuster-proof majority of Democrats in the Senate to go along with the Democrat majority in the House and a Democrat President. It will be important, therefore, for Republicans to seize the offensive initiative.

There are three issues which will likely come to a head in 2009 which Republicans can win – if they can get out in front of the story and start framing the debate before their counterparts:

Card Check/Forced Unionization. The Employee Free Choice Act is a proposed law that makes it easier for union “representatives” to intimidate workers into joining unions. (This can’t be repeated enough.) Aside from giving Democrats a healthy stream of campaign cash and workers, stripping workers of the right to vote against unionization on a private ballot would likely expand unionization – which, as anyone from the American auto industry can tell you, will serve to make American goods more expensive and less competitive in the marketplace. The right to a secret ballot is sacred for most Americans.

Business Bailouts. Speaking of Detroit, industries are already lining up with their hands out hoping to snag a share of the federal budget. Commercial real estate, retail stores, and even newspapers are rightfully asking why they shouldn’t get the same help as other industries. Handing out money hand-over-fist will earn votes in certain states and communities, but it won’t help the economy. And, in general, bailouts are unpopular among voters. Taking a stand against corporate entitlements would be a good way to demonstrate a broad support for entitlement reform.

Health Care. This may be the biggest challenge for the Republican minority, and it’s the issue they are already the most behind on. Given the state of the economy, a federal health care entitlement figures to be a popular program – especially if common misconceptions continue to be spread without answer. The Obama Pre-Administration has already solicited “public input” for its health care plan by having supporter organize “community discussions” during a time when many groups that would oppose his plan were taking a Christmas vacation. Of course, there’s plenty wrong with allowing the same people who run government institutions like the school systems, the IRS, the DMV, etc. to run medical care, but that case has to be made clearly, aggressively, and repeatedly.

These issues may not be the top three on President Obama’s docket, but Republicans can’t allow their agenda to be dictated by Democrats as they have for the past four years. These issues, while challenging, will help Republicans regain some control of the nation’s policy agenda.

Dr. Daschle’s Video

December 3, 2008 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

There’s a lot to like about HHS Secretary-to-be Tom Daschle’s video about the Obama team’s response to comments on their early work on health care reform (released this week on Change.gov):

Granted, Daschle’s glasses make him look like he should be answering the phone for the Ghostbusters. But the video is excellent: apparently unscripted and very conversational. Professional touches like makeup and effective cuts and edits make the footage look good, but the banter between Dr. Daschle and Policy Team Member Lauren Aronson is easy and natural – right down to mentioning that a third team member is still out of the office on Thanksgiving break. They even read from the 3,500 comments they received and mentioned commenters by name – a nice touch.

This comment process is more than just an excuse to post a YouTube video. Consider this word cloud of the 100 term most used in those 3,500 comments:

This gives team Obama an idea of what buzzwords to use when building and pushing their health care plan – in other words, what words and phrases will most resonate with those commenters and inspire them to write their Congressman and Senators to encourage passage.

Paranoia may destroy ya, but McCain’s health care plan won’t

October 30, 2008 ~ Jim Eltringham ~ Leave a comment

I have seen tons of Barack Obama commercials plugging his health care plan and telling me that John McCain’s plan will tax my health benefits. Predictably, it’s not true; what is true is that McCain’s plan would shift ownership of health care coverage to me and away from my employer – so if I change jobs, my health coverage comes with me. (It’s a concept that was championed by Thomas Friedman in his best-selling book, The World Is Flat.) Barack Obama cribbed the major pillars of his program from Mitt Romney, who instituted it in my adopted homeland of Massachusetts.

Is it part of a disturbing pattern? Another Obama commercial quotes a Heritage Foundation policy expert – and by “quotes” I mean “flat out lies about” the expert opinion. Despite the lead, Obama is demonstrating an almost paranoid urgency. McCain HQ may want to double check their phone lines.