Lenovation

Tonight, Jay Leno says good-bye to the Tonight Show.  It will be the end of an era, but not for the same reason his predecessor’s final show was.  Johnny Carson’s final bow in 1992 meant that a popular, recognizable personality was leaving the public eye; despite being consistently top-rated Leno was never so loved.  He may, however, revolutionize prime time the way Carson revolutionized late night.

When it premiers this fall, Leno’s 10:00 p.m., five-nights-a-week talk show will be markedly different from its competition.  And that may be a good thing.  NBC Universal head honcho Jeff Zucker said recently that television networks like NBC are buoyed by their cable properties – and that the demand for cheap programming and instant hits means that shows that take time to find an audience, like Seinfeld, wouldn’t make it today.

Networks must, as Zucker said, change the way they do business for many reasons.  Original dramas on cable have become more successful over the past ten years (look at The Shield, The Sopranos, Monk, and Sex and the City) and have the advantage of a revenue stream beyond advertising.  Since you pay for cable already, FX doesn’t mind if you TiVo an episode of Sons of Anarchy and fast forward through the commercials.  But your clicker is killing NBC, which relies almost solely on advertising to generate revenue, when you skip through the proud sponsors of The Office.  Shows aired either live or on tape delay – sports, news, and, of course, talk shows – offer the best advertising opportunities.

Enter Leno in prime time, and NBC has a better venue for advertising.  And, since it airs five nights a week, viewers don’t really have to choose between Leno and NCIS – they can watch NCIS one night of the week, CSI another, and Leno when there isn’t an alternative.  As he was on the Tonight Show, Leno will be television’s fallback position.

The stakes at 10:00 are a lot lower for Leno than they were when he stepped behind Johnny’s desk.  He’s a known commodity, he doesn’t have a very high bar to exceed, and he has no direct competition.  But if it works, it could mean a big win for NBC – and, like his predecessor, Leno may inspire copycats.

Barry’s “Civil War”

marionbarryCity Council Member Marion Barry was the lone vote against a Washington, D.C. city ordinance to recognize same-sex marriages granted by other jurisdictions (i.e. real states).  Barry further warned of a coming “Civil War” over the issue because the black community’s opposition to gay marriage.

From the Washington Post’s DC Wire blog:

“What you’ve got to understand is 98 percent of my constituents are black and we don’t have but a handful of openly gay residents,” Barry said. “Secondly, at least 70 percent of those who express themselves to me about this are opposed to anything dealing with this issue. The ministers think it is a sin, and I have to be sensitive to that.”

Before resorting to the “What is he smoking?” jokes, I’d like to hold this up as another example of the Tip O’Neill Axiom – all politics is, indeed, local.  Marion Barry is in office today – after getting caught with drugs, serving time in jail, and multiple charges of tax evasion – because the voters of the Eighth Ward feel like he represents them.  If his next campaign finds his messages falling on deaf and distrustful ears, he’d be dragged out of office like he was dragged out of that hotel room (by police who were arresting him for smoking crack).

[Sidebar: do you realize how hard it is to find that video of Marion Barry getting busted on YouTube – or anywhere on the internet?]

Marion Barry may find some folks are alienated by his dissenting vote today, but it likely won’t cost him any votes the next time his name is on a ballot.  Perhaps Barry’s own campaign slogan – from when he first ran for city council after getting out of jail for possession – says it best: “He Mot Be Perfect, but He’s Perfect for DC.”

Culture shock

Culture11 – a site dedicated to conservative-leaning cultural commentary – abruptly laid off its entire staff this week. While the site’s backers maintain that this isn’t the end, the future looks bleak without an influx of money.

Joshua Trevino chronicles a few key flaws of Culture11. The site sprang up not from a grassroots groundswell, but from a few key investors who apparently did not see a return on their investment quickly enough to justify further expenditures. Trevino argues that other popular blogs started much smaller and were allowed to “grow into” their ultimate size and influence.

There’s another problem with a site like Culture11, which seemed to be intended as a conservative alternative to The Huffington Post. Overt and admitted conservatism turns off a certain audience – usually who would claim to be simply uninterested in politics but extremely interested in entertainment. That’s why the overt-but-unadmitted liberalism of mainstream media outlets has such an impact.

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Playing a new game

My brother Mike had the best summary about the constant harping on Sarah Palin over the past 60 days: “Everyone seems to be mad because she doesn’t play the game.” She certainly is the biggest outsider of the race.

Pundits are quick to point out that despite appearing on Saturday Night Live, she hasn’t appeared on any Sunday morning talk shows. True – but she also probably understands Saturday Night Live is probably more relevant in shaping public perceptions outside of the beltway than the Sunday morning talk shows. Fourteen million viewers tuned into NBC for Saturday Night Live last weekend. That’s 10 million more than how many tuned into NBC’s Meet the Press the previous week – and that was the top-rated show.

(And who ever imagined we’d see a national candidate raising the roof at the Weekend Update desk and not looking like a complete doofus? At the very least she raised her favorability numbers.)

Palin even criticized her own campaign (politely) for using automated phone calls, candidly saying they are annoying. Sure, that’s common sense – but it’s quite a step to admit that political campaigns are tedious for the average American. This understanding creates opportunity for connection that, really, no other person on a national ticket has made.

As I mentioned previously, the question now is whether Palin can build on this to create a stronger connection with the American people – and to become a national spokesperson for the people who respond better to her style of politics. Based on the way she rolled with the punches on Saturday, her chances seem decent.

Nazis for McCain/Palin

Last night’s Family Guy featured a sight gag I missed until I saw it on Digg today. Apparently, Nazis are all about McCain/Palin:

I’m assuming Family Guy creator Seth MacFarlane did this because of the image of McCain’s cult of personality inspiring massive crowds in Germany last summer… Oh, no, wait, that was Obama. Well, maybe it was because of the way McCain has targeted one segment of America as having too much money, and has promised to re-distribute their wealth (as Hitler did with Jewish businessowners)? Nope, that’s Obama again.

It must have been campaign finance reform.

Punishing success

Listening to the rhetoric this campaign season, and looking at polls that say people feel the country is heading in the wrong direction or that a deep recession or another Great Depression is right around the corner, one gets the feeling that our national confidence isn’t high.

The criticism heaped on a high school team that won 91-0 – even after pulling their starters and laying off their hapless opponents – may have a connection. Is our Gross Domestic Self Esteem Index low because we are afraid to succeed?

Our pursuit of terrorists turned into a nation-building exercise rather than a kill-people-and-break-things mission. The candidate who will likely win the White House has a campaign predicated on the idea that America as it is currently constituted is set up to ensure failure for certain classes of people. And when he gets in, his tax policy will punish anyone making over $200,000 per year.

America has, from its founding, been suspicious of power. It seems we are equally suspicious of ourselves.