Retirement planning

The double-barreled retirements of Senators Dodd and Dorgan – combined with the revelations that Democratic frontrunnerswill be giving up bids to claim and maintain (respectively) in Michigan and Colorado – launched speculation of what possibilities await the Republican party in 2010.

In the Senate, the Democrats’ prospects have actually brightened.  Dodd’s seat would have been a near lock for a Republican pickup.  In both Connecticut and North Dakota, new Democratic candidates can run against the status quo without being tainted by the failures of the previous or current Congress.

And nationally, while Dodd and Dorgan have generated some Republican excitement, these types of anouncements are better done early in a cycle than late.  Like ripping off a band-aid in one fell swoop, early retirements allow adequate time to allow the media story of a flailing party to run its course and to recruit and fund replacements on the ballot.

There are going to be more calls for Senate Democrats to retire, though, as several incumbents have polled weakly.  But of all the flagging incumbents, the one who might be most likely could be Majority Leader Harry Reid – even if there is no obvious replacement for him on the ticket.

In many respects, Reid is in the same position as Tom Daschle was in 2004 – a vulnerable national party leader whose prominence caused some within his own state to feel he had lost touch with them.  And like Daschle, Reid will fight not only Republicans within his own state, but GOP donors and volunteers from across the country who sense blood in the water and are hungry for a win that would officially end the “Republican Party is Dying” media story (for a few years, at least).

That kind of energy fueling a get out the vote operation could cause a 5% bounce, seriously hurting not only Reid, but other Democrats… including gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid, the Majority Leader’s son.

Mass hysteria

In an early surprise of 2010, Republican State Senator Scott Brown is picking up steam in the special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat left vacant by Ted Kennedy’s death last year.  Of course, he’d need a lot of steam, since even Rasmussen’s polls put him nine points behind Attorney General Martha Coakley – who still polls at 50%.  A deeper reading of the poll shows some reasons for even further optimism, though:of those who “definitely” plan to vote, Brown’s disadvantage sinks to 2%.  In a special election in January in New England, leading among independents and the most passionate voters is enough to be within striking distance.

Massachusetts Republican-leaning bloggers from conservative thinker Dan Flynn to scum-of-the-Earth, fake-bloody-sock-wearing Curt Schilling have expressed excitement about Brown’s run.  And given the political environment in Massachusetts, this is an against-the-spread race.  If Brown finishes within 5-10 points on election day, he’ll start the media narrative that, even in the bluest of blue states, support for the Obama agenda is wavering.  And it will help excite the Bay State Republican Activists who would be crucial for later contests – including a Governor’s race later this year.

Two campaign tools you don’t have to pay for

Google Wave is still a mystery to many folks – I have to confess, I haven’t spend a considerable amount of time pondering its potential yet.  But Wes Donehue of TechRepublican has, and he shares some ways to use this new tool for a cause or campaign:

Also at TechRepublican today: Jeff Vreeland has a good idea about using Facebook as a email match program.  Amassing email addresses has become a basic function of any organized effort, but an email address alone is worth little.  Using that information as a springboard for connecting on other platforms can help draw potential volunteers and donors into the fold.