Twitter predicts the Oscars… sort of

New Media Strategies predicted most of the major Oscar winners looking at social media data.  Brandwatch pulled a similar trick.

America has plenty of elections, from the crucially important annuals like the Oscars or the meaningless Presidential elections that we only bother with every four years.  In many of them, online networks and social media can predict results – winning candidates tend to be mentioned more on Twitter or liked more on Facebook.

While some will jump to the conclusion that online chatter will drive the support that pushes a candidate over the edge, that’s an over-simplistic reading of the situation.  Social media posts are tea leaves of human behavior, but not usually the initial driver.  It’s worth watching data trends and extrapolating results, but trying to create those data trends to ensure a specific outcome is a waste of time.  Daniel Day Lewis didn’t win an Oscar with social buzz, he won by making the legislative posturing surrounding the passage of the 13th Amendment interesting and engaging.  He didn’t even have to slay any vampires, so that was good too.  Similarly, online activity follows good political candidates, it doesn’t create them.

(Sidebar: What kind of a sick joke is it that Lincoln Motor Company is a subsidiary of Ford?)

If the correlation between online data and reality was more direct, according to Google we’d all have the flu by now.

 

Obama’s press strategy is nefarious and manipulative – copy it!

Politico greeted night owls and early risers to a fantastic article about the White House press strategy.  The tenets have been the same for every President, controlling the President’s public image through strategic use of information – but no President has had the options that Barack Obama has.

Since great minds steal, anyone seeking to copy the Obama team’s strategy should consider three major points:

1. News outlets are no longer the gatekeepers for mass media exposure.

White House photographers have been commonplace in the past few decades; Politico notes that the current White House has made those photographs ubiquitous on Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr.  That these channels exist allow the President to go over the media’s head, but without mass media branding they wouldn’t work as well.

Ronald Reagan and his predecessors faced three networks and a handful of national newspapers.  Bill Clinton presided over the rise of cable news networks, as MSNBC and Fox joined CNN to increase scrutiny on the sturm and drang of partisan politics; online media helped increase that during George W. Bush’s administration.

Big News is now the victim of its own success.  There’s now a general awareness of political comings and goings, enough that political topics spill into entertainment shows.  And think about all the channels on your TV dial today.  Quasi-news shows – like The Daily Show, The View, and the Today Show – now allow politicians to maintain visibility without getting asked hard questions.  President Obama will have plenty of eyeballs on him when he fills out his NCAA brackets this year, but ESPN’s Stuart Scott probably won’t ask him any pointed questions about Benghazi or gun control.

(Sidebar: Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Obama did run into a tough line of questioning on ESPN of all places?  “So you like Duke to come out of the South Region.  What did you think was going to come out of the south when you shipped those guns to Mexico?”)

2.  Brand matters

This visibility serves to underscore a certain identity.  Visibility in and of itself is one thing, but carefully selecting the outlet where you’re seen helps create a message.

Obama wants voter to identify with him personally, so sharing his love for sports on ESPN helps.  Brief interviews to network anchors, fluff interviews on The View, and vague calls to action in the State of the Union all serve to underscore that he’s in control, but not so wonkish that he would be unapproachable.

Obama is able to pull this strategy off now because he is the President, has had two national campaigns, and is a known personality to most Americans.  During his 2008 primary campaign, he had to create that interest by launching a campaign that looked and felt different from traditional campaigns – from the Pepsi-ish logo to the embracing of supporter-created materials.  Sarah Palin tried to eschew the “lamestream media” in favor of communication via Facebook post – but her story was already written for her when she abruptly resigned as governor.  Her branding efforts were far more traditionally political, so they predictably flopped when she tried to use non-traditional outlets to reinforce them.

Palin’s attempt to bypass the media is a good example of how a clumsy, ham-fisted attempt to mimic Obama’s White House is doing can backfire.  If you’re running for dog catcher and there’s no demand for media accessibility, some of these won’t work; however if you’re the person everyone wants to interview, you can call some of the shots.

3. Working harder and smarter trumps media bias.

For decades – decades! – Republicans have groused about media bias.  They’ll point to surveys that show reporters tend to vote Democrat, and they’ll moan that no Republican will get the same treatment as Obama.

There will always be folks like Chris Matthews who fall in love with candidates like Obama and worship them with an illogical fervor that gives cult followers a run for their money.   But the creation of good coverage by the Obama Administration is more the result of meticulous work than a happy accident of reporter preference.  The communications team knows where the President needs to be seen and how to make the most out of each channel they use.  Backed with the currency of access to the White House, they put themselves in a position to write the rules of engagement – and aren’t shy about doing so.

Will [INSERT GOP CANDIDATE HERE] be able to create a carbon copy in 2016?  Probably not in terms of outcome.  But in terms of overall attitude, strategies, and tactics, a lot of what the Obama Team does is worth swiping.

You Say You Want A Revolution?

This week, Revolution came up on my iPod on the way home from work one night this week.  Years ago, when I worked at the Leadership Institute, many of my colleagues enjoyed this song.  Travelling to campus after campus helping students build conservative organizations in overwhelmingly left-wing environments, we were at the forefront of the conservative revolution.

Listening to the lyrics again this week, the cautionary tune for the radical left of the 1960s and 1970s sounded like an appropriate warning for today’s political would-be warriors.

Monday night just hours after Chris Cillizza posted what read like an obituary for Sarah Palin.  Listen to the lyrics, and The coverage of her break with Fox News framed Palin as the poster child for soundbite-driven Republican party that was short on ideas.

Palin was hardly the only center-right figure to fall into this trap, so you can’t blame here for being the driving force behind the anti-intellectual discourse of the past four years.  It’s just as wrong to claim vapidity is the exclusive property of the right.  Remember that Palin’s 2008 ticket lost to a campaign that was paper thin behind the glowing ideas of “hope,” “change,” and “Yes We Can!”

There’s a lesson in that loss, and it’s summed up in the oft-quoted line, “But if you carrying pictures of chairman Mao / You ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow.”  Conservatives like to point to this and say even the hippy-dippy Beatles understood that communism sucks.  Possibly, but that’s not really the point.

Anyone who carries their politics on their sleeve is someone who gets avoided pretty frequently.  They are the people you defriend on Facebook because of their long screeds against corporate America and because they call you a fascist for liking McDonald’s french fries.  They are the people that can’t hold a conversation without talking about the encroachment of the Federal government on our collective rights.

These folks may have a point (except the french fry guy because McDonald’s is awesome). The problem is they bend over backwards to make it.  They’re trying too hard.

President Obama in one of the most overtly liberal Presidents of the past century.  That’s fine, he didn’t get elected because of his beliefs.  No President does.  Heck, no politician does, really.  That’s why it’s laughable to hear any analysis of a Republican primary where one candidate is deemed “too conservative” to win.  There’s no such thing as too conservative to win.

There is such a thing as too crazy to win.

Anyone who really wants a revolution (on either side) needs to remember that to avoid falling into the trap that Palin and other Republicans have for the past decade.

After all, we all want to change the world.

Green World

Phelim McAleer made the rounds in DC this week to promote his documentary FrackNation – which airs next Tuesday on AXS television.  The North Ireland native noted several times that what was intended to be a documentary showing the truth about natural gas extraction methods ended up being as much a commentary on the media.

An exchange during one of McAleer’s presentations especially stood out.  A conservative blogger noted that the New York Times closed its green desk, and asked if that counted as a victory against media bias.  “Did we win this debate?”  McAleer countered that what can best be termed environmentalist ideology permeates reporting.

“Everything is green,”  he said.  “Why do you need a green desk?”

Strong point.  Just as getting labeled “the conservative version of _____” (or “the liberal version of _____”) promises failure, having a desk specifically designated for covering a certain issue or movement sequesters that coverage.  Given the Times’s political leanings, having a green desk was probably a waste of a desk in the first place.

And while documentaries tend to be dry, the teasers suggest that if you’re into this type of thing, it might be fun to watch.  When talking about political documentaries, this is usually the point where I play the wet blanket and say that explicitly fictional stories can be more effective long term in shaping opinions.  But since that hasn’t worked so well for the other side of the fracking debate, perhaps I ought to shut up…

What does Manti Te’o owe you?

NBC News has “9 baffling questions about the Manti Te’o girlfriend hoax.”  They forgot #10: Why so serious?

ESPN Radio’s Mike Greenberg has been incredulous that Notre Dame is standing behind its star.  Sports Illustrated’s front page this morning dissects Te’o’s interviews about his now-fake girlfriend.

Morning drive time radio shows joking about it?  That makes sense.  Ditto for the Te’oing internet meme.  It’s a bizarre story, and the jokes practically write themselves, and it’s funny to talk about.  It’s also interesting to follow, as each revelation makes the story that much weirder.  But getting to the bottom of what Te’o knew and when shouldn’t win anyone a Pulitzer; it’s definitely not worth a crusade.

It doesn’t matter whether he knew or not.  It doesn’t matter when he knew.  If Notre Dame has some egg on their face for supporting their player, it will not lead to a lack of enrollment.  (It may drive away recruits who fear that, even playing for a national college football powerhouse, they can’t do better than an imaginary girlfriend – but that’s another story.)

Te’o owes no one an explanation, other than the NFL teams which are his prospective future employers assuming he enters the draft as planned.  They will be reasonably and rightfully curious about his integrity and mental state.  That’s part of the usual pre-draft evaluation, though NFL draft history tells us that the bars for both qualities are not always very high.

On the other hand, a sports reporter who had written some glowing human interest puff piece on the tragedies in Te’o’s life might feel duped when it turned out to be a fake.  It made for great copy at the time – surely, ESPN and others enjoyed the ratings/pageviews bump for tugging at the viewers’ heartstrings.  If your job was to research, write, and present true stories, wouldn’t you bristle when it was revealed that you didn’t check the facts and you didn’t question conventional wisdom when it sounded a little too perfect?

Despite all the “unanswered questions,” at least we know where the sanctimony comes from.

(Sidebar: For competitive purposes, the NCAA may want to think about the way it crowns its champion.  In the week and a half since the nominal championship game, there’s been more talk about the players’ girlfriends than the actual blowout.  Good thing there’s a playoff system on the horizon.)

 

A rare good PR move for ARod

Joel Sherman of the New York Post (America’s Newspaper of Record) published an exclusive (and extensive) interview with Alex Rodriguez’s doctors yesterday.  On a day where an empty Hall of Fame induction press conference underscored the sport’s reliance on media perceptions, Sherman’s article is a great PR move from a player that could use it.  If you can spell ESPN, you know that Rodriguez was MIA in the playoffs coming off two injury-riddled seasons, and what effect that had on his relationship with the forgiving and always-adoring New York sports fans.

This Sherman exclusive – which shares intricate details of the nature of his current injury – is a great public relations move.  If you were using baseball metaphors, you’d call it a solid 2-run double.

Given the level of detail the medical staff shares about the status, it’s clear that Rodriguez had to give his blessing for the revelations, and that was smart.  Without a single clichéd, Bull Durham-esque quote from the third baseman on being “more disappointed than anyone” or “not getting it done” during his horrendous postseason, two doctors went back and forth practically amazed that he could even walk during September and October.  They also debunk the whispers that past steroid use caused Rodriguez’s injury.  Best of all, Rodriguez and the Yankees stay out of the story.  The medical information alone speaks for itself and doesn’t need framing.  Heck, it makes you wonder if Rodriguez will play another game again at all.

And there’s why this is a great story.  Demanding fans and the 24-hour sports news machine feed each other, and the meal is often re-digested.  In this case, we all know the story: ARod, the richest player in baseball history, doesn’t live up to expectations and the fans hate him for it.   More coverage begets more boos raining down from the upper deck, and boos in turn beget more negative coverage.  Sherman’s story probably won’t stop that, but it does frame the last three years of Rodriguez’s career in a badly needed new – and much more flattering – light.

I’m just as special as everyone else

An article making the rounds today points out that America’s freshmen and freshwomen have an inflated sense of their own specialness – and that may have some long-term personal repercussions:

Pyschologist Jean Twenge and her colleagues compiled the data and found that over the last four decades there’s been a dramatic rise in the number of students who describe themselves as being ‘above average’ in the areas of academic ability, drive to achieve, mathematical ability, and self-confidence… While students are much more likely to call themselves gifted in writing abilities, objective test scores actually show that their writing abilities are far less than those of their 1960s counterparts.

…But if you found yourself bothered by a person always talking about how wonderful they are, remember that their future may not be bright.

“In the long-term, what tends to happen is that narcissistic people mess up their relationships, at home and at work,” Twenge said. Though narcissists may be charming at first, their selfish actions eventually damage relationships.

It’s not until middle-age they may realize their lives have had a number of failed relationships.

The good news is that heightened levels of narcissism may cause many young people to read this article and think, “Hey, this is me!”  The bad news is that no one reads anymore.

 

3 things the NRA got wrong today

The National Rifle Association was already in a tough position when Wayne LaPierre took to the podium this morning.  A full week after the violence in Connecticut, the nation’s biggest advocate of gun rights broke its self-imposed silence to offer their side of the recent debate.

LaPierre’s calls for increased school security and have been widely panned.  That’s no surprise: the press conference really was a no-win situation, which they must have known when they decided it would be held on the Friday before Christmas weekend.  There is nothing LaPierre could have said that would have drawn a positive response; this is an “against-the-spread” PR situation where the biggest victory is in making the smallest waves.

Yet there were three points that stood out in the official NRA response that clouded even that goal:

1. Making it all about the NRA.  LaPierre explained his organization’s week-long silence as deferential to the community in mourning, but said he was forced to speak up:

Because for all the noise and anger directed at us over the past week, no one — nobody — has addressed the most important, pressing and immediate question we face:  How do we protect our children right now, starting today, in a way that we know works?

This has the makings of a pretty good thesis statement except, but it is off the mark on a couple points.  First, the noise and anger was not directed exclusively at the NRA in the last week.  Horrific events like those in Newtown stir the most visceral emotions; and in that maelstrom of sadness and pain thinking thoughts like “Ban all guns now!” is completely logical.  I’m sure there were plenty of freedom-loving Americans who, in the hours after the news of the shooting broke, would have gladly surrendered their Second Amendment rights to prevent a repeat of those events.  It would have been nice to acknowledge that – though there were plenty who took the opportunity to bash the NRA, those people whose allegiance to the Second Amendment was shaken a bit shouldn’t be lumped in with the Michael Moores of the world.

Second, people have been asking “How do we protect our children?” for the last week – nonstop.

Framing their statement this way makes the NRA look extremely narcissistic and a bit paranoid.  Yes, they will be under intense scrutiny from their political enemies, but that’s not who the most important audience was this morning.  The NRA needed to demonstrate understanding of the greater understanding of last week’s events to connect with the broader public.

2. Blaming the media.  The NRA followed a call for more security in schools with an admonishment of the media for their framing of the debate:

Now, I can imagine the shocking headlines you’ll print tomorrow morning: “More guns,” you’ll claim, “are the NRA’s answer to everything!” Your implication will be that guns are evil and have no place in society, much less in our schools.

Perhaps this was an attempt at inoculation – framing the response before the inevitable response came.  But chastising the media while standing in front of the media only encourages more negative coverage.

3. Talking about guns.  Here’s the crux of the problem: the shooting in Connecticut wasn’t about guns, it was about a sick person who took children’s lives for reasons the general public does not know yet.  The discussions about gun control are one aspect of the reaction to the shooting.  Unfortunately, that’s the area of discussion where the NRA decided to dwell.

The NRA is charged with defending its members’ rights to own guns – so it makes sense that the gun control angle would be the policy arena that was of most concern.  But by acknowledging only that angle, the NRA legitimized the idea that the reaction to Newtown should be exclusively about gun control.  Even when LaPierre mentioned other factors – such as American culture’s promotion of violence through video games – it was framed as the shifting of blame away from gun ownership.

By presenting this morning’s press conference within the context of the gun control debate, the NRA missed an opportunity to reduce the gun control element by elevating and expanding the overall conversation about what to do in the aftermath of Sandy Hook.  In many ways, the NRA allowed its opponents to shape this morning’s statement – which is a sure recipe to lose your point.

How It Could Have Gone Better

The reality is that the NRA had something important and possibly resonant to say.  After expressing his sympathies (which he did), LaPierre could have stated that in a situation like this it is important to think clearly and rationally to find solutions which will keep our children safe – and not be distracted by policies which do nothing to protect our children but allow politicians to pat themselves on the back.  We should not and cannot, LaPierre could have said, sacrifice progress for the sake of easy motion.  (There would have been some context mentioning the NRA as a four-million-person membership organization, which LaPierre worked in well this morning.)

LaPierre could have continued: Over the coming weeks and months there will be necessary and important discussions about what caused the horror in Connecticut – discussions in which the NRA will lend whatever expertise we can.  Those discussions will surely involve expanded mental health services, school security, and (naturally) the limitation of gun rights.

On that last item, LaPierre might have noted that the reaction was understandable in the wake of such events.  Without accusing anyone of trying to score political points, he might have called attention to a high level of misinformation and misunderstanding floating around in the media and in social media discussions.  Then he could have unveiled guncontrolfacts.com (the URL is available for not that much money) or some other new website dedicated to illuminating that discussion with truth – because, again, the ultimate goal is to find solutions that work.  A question-and-answer session would have been highly contentious, but would have been better than ignoring questions.

And that would have been it, because the goal of today would have been to return to the public eye, express understanding and a willingness to talk, and then to let the other side overreact if they felt the need to.

There would have been no Asa Hutchinson discussing a task force to put armed guards in schools – that policy push could come down the road.  There would be no lambasting of the media or aggressive posturing, and certainly no opinions about the effects of video games and movies.  The reaction from the punditocracy would have still been hostile, but the NRA would be better positioned to mitigate the likely gun control proposals that will emerge from the Biden Commission.

There also would be no shrinking from the NRA’s core values – just a recognition that, sometimes, tone matters, and that an effective response doesn’t mean having all the answers.

Restricting free speech the right way

In America, for the most part, you have every right to say what you like.  But you may understand that it’s not always a good idea.

In decrying the mass media reaction to to the school shooting in Connecticut, Matt Lewis floated the idea of media control.  It was an intentionally over-the-top suggestion to demonstrate absurdity, but he has a point.  Separating recent events from the discussion, how many times have you heard (or even used) the phrase “the 24-hour news cycle” when explaining some social phenomenon or another?  It’s why our politics have been reduced to sound-bite-driven partisan hackery, it’s why Mark Sanchez has regressed as a quarterback, and it’s why “crisis communication” has become a must-have asset for big businesses.

Mama Eltringham had a saying back in the day: “The more hurry, the less speed” – meaning the faster you try to get something done, the more you tend to mess up.  Things like accuracy and thoughtful context fly out the window pretty quick when a media outlet relentlessly focused on scooping the other guys.  But accuracy and quality are essential elements for a press, so if they are flying out the window, someone will eventually come along and slam it shut.

Unimaginative libertarians hear the suggestion of “regulation” and bristle instantly.  But that can take many forms.  In the 1940s, it took the form of the Hutchins Commission, which famously outlined the duties of a  free and responsible press.  That commission (which was initiated by publishers and academics) sprang from concerns that while there were more and more people relying on the press, control of the mass media was falling into the hands of a few key players.  The key impetus behind the commission, though, was a fear that these concerns were the types of problems that, left unattended, would eventually result in rollbacks of the First Amendment.  The Hutchins Commission’s stab at self-regulation has now been taught for decades in Journalism departments across the country.

Today’s press faces the twin challenges of media consolidation and the ubiquity of information channels, including new/social media.  (The popularity of these new channels, incidentally, is a direct result of the lack of trust citizens have in the mainstream press.)  And of course there are the various strings attached to that dreaded “24-hour news cycle.”

Rollbacks on press freedom would not be good public policy, of course.  But since when has the quality of a policy ever prevented a knee-jerk implementation?  Federal law books alone have pages and pages of dumb or antiquated laws that aren’t removed for fear of public outcry.  In the right environment, media regulations could be in play – not today or tomorrow, but a bit farther down the path the press is currently on.

Before that day comes, major media outlets would be wise to put their heads together to think about how they are handling their freedom of the press, before some else thinks about it for them.

Merry Xmas, American Atheists

The American Atheists annual anti-Christian Christmas billboard has attracted it’s annual outrage.  The Catholic League, as expected, issued a response, focusing on the use of iconic imagery of a crucified Jesus.

This has to be the gift that keeps on giving for both groups.

The Atheists can’t be winning many converts to their non-religious religion; their messages are muddied and non-persuasive.  Christmas and Easter tend to be times of year where people identify more with religion, so it isn’t the time to try to take a crowbar and peel off the less devout.  Further, using Christmas images like Santa Claus while arguing against the celebration of Jesus Christ sends a mixed message.

The Christmas season is replete with Christian imagery, which likely cheeses off the hardcore atheists who would write checks to an outfit like American Atheists.  Making a public statement during Advent is the messaging equivalent of letting off steam.  It’s great timing for media coverage, too.

Getting some press attention and giving donors something to write checks for is probably plenty for the enterprise to be called a success.  But it sure isn’t effective for advancing their organization if the idea is to create more atheists.

In so many ways, Christmas is a season of guilt; you may feel guilty about not keeping up with old friends, or that you don’t do more for the less fortunate.  Have you ever been in a Catholic Church in the weeks before Christmas?  It’s packed to the gills with good folks whose lives got away from them and who are trying to slip some extra pew time in before the close of the fourth quarter.  Maybe American Atheist reasons that people would like to shed that guilt; they are incorrect.

We do it because we want to go to church for 52 weeks, but it’s easy to skip a week – just like we give to homeless shelters and food drives and Toys for Tots now because we know we should have earlier, but didn’t.

Christmas is a time when we’re all a bit closer  to the people we want to be.  You might be a religious person who has disagreements with your church’s stance on something or other throughout the year, but Christmas is rarely one of those points of contention.

That makes it pretty easy for a group like the Catholic League to stand up, draw support, and win some favorable coverage.  Who knew they’d get such a nice Christmas gift from an atheist?